Dark clouds above the Minnesota tundra are expected (as usual) this fall but that doesn’t mean the sky is falling on Gophers football.
The pessimists are all atwitter over the Gophers offensive miseries. Indeed, production has been awful. Through five games (four nonconference and one league game), Minnesota ranks last in scoring among Big Ten teams at 15.4 points per game. The Gophers are also last among the 13 other teams in rushing offense (141.2 yards per game) and tied for ninth with Michigan State in pass offense (195.4).
But more of the not so positive details later. The day brightener these days is the Gophers defense—a unit that, despite the loss of injured defensive backs, ranks fourth in the Big Ten versus the pass giving up 154.6 yards per game. The overall defense has lived up to the preseason hype of being among the best units in the Big Ten and although allowing an eighth-best 20.2 points per game the defense has sometimes been put with their backs near the end zone because of miscues not of their doing.
Jerry Kill inherited a mess, including personnel shortages, when he took over the program as Gophers coach after the 2010 season. He set a goal of fixing the defense first and he has done just that. He has also upgraded the kicking game with senior Peter Mortell being one of the nation’s better punters. Sophomore Ryan Santoso has a powerful leg and he has shown accuracy in his early career while both kicking off and booting field goals.
Kill is five games into his fifth season at Minnesota. His overall record is 28-28. In the last 29 years the Gophers have had two other head coaches who were around long enough to coach 56 games—Glen Mason with a 25-31 record and John Gutekunst, 26-28-2.
The opinion here is Kill is the best coach at Minnesota since Lou Holtz made a stopover (1984 and 1985) between assignments at Arkansas and Notre Dame. In the last two seasons the Gophers have twice had overall records of 8-5, with 4-4 and 5-3 records in the Big Ten. The 1999 and 2000 seasons were the last ones the Gophers were at .500 or better in the Big Ten during consecutive years.
The Gophers are 9-6 in their last 15 conference games. The 9-6 ties Iowa for the fourth best mark in the Big Ten during that period. Excluding the results of Big Ten title games, the records of other teams include Ohio State 15-0, Michigan State 14-1, Wisconsin 12-3, Nebraska 8-7, and Michigan and Penn State, both 6-9.
Kill has turned around the football program beyond the playing field. His team collectively had a 3.04 GPA last spring semester and his players are earning their degrees after he inherited a program where players were on academic probation and not attending classes. Also, ask the University police and Minneapolis police if there hasn’t been a dramatic change in off-field behavior.
This week the University Board of Regents is expected to approve detailed plans to move ahead on the $190 million project to improve athletics facilities. Included in that project will be a badly needed new football practice facility. Kill has been adamant about such a facility becoming a reality and has hinted he might not be at Minnesota long-term without it.
Without Kill, the reported $80 million or so that has been fundraised wouldn’t be in place. He is the single most important fundraiser in the athletic department and millions of dollars have been donated because of him.
The anticipated good news about the athletic facilities project is well timed after the offensive debacle at Northwestern. The Wildcats, who shut out Minnesota 27-0, have one of the Big Ten’s best defenses but the Gophers’ biggest obstacle offensively is themselves.
It’s disappointing that after five seasons the Gophers haven’t developed an above average Big Ten quarterback. Instead, there has been a parade of quarterbacks unable to consistently perform at a high level. Kill and his staff developed outstanding quarterbacks in just three seasons at Northern Illinois. Look for them to get the QB riddle solved by next year, perhaps with true freshman Demry Croft who has promising skills both passing and running.
The offensive line has made many misplays this season, another disappointment since that unit was supposed to be among the best in the Big Ten’s West Division. Injuries have kept starters Ben Lauer and Jon Christenson from playing, although Christenson is expected back for Saturday’s game at Purdue. Injuries have slowed other players and forced the coaches to reshuffle assignments. The results have been a mess with the Gophers sometimes unable to pass block or run block.
The offense’s failures include an inability to make long gains. Freshman running backs Rodney Smith (one 30 yard run) and Shannon Brooks (40 yards) show some big play potential but the Gophers are still looking for receivers to consistently step up.
The Gophers might be advised to focus on a power run game, rather than use it occasionally along with their spread offense. Load up the offense with extra tight ends and a blocking fullback. Run not only using the tailbacks, but also let the quarterbacks carry the ball. Both Croft and Mitch Leidner are effective runners, with Croft offering elusiveness while Leidner runs with power.
The offense needs a spark and it seems likely both Croft and Leidner, who has been the starter since going back to last season, will play at Purdue. One or both of them could make plays with their feet and arms to give Minnesota a lift against a less than impressive Boilermakers defense. Purdue is giving up a Big Ten worst 33 points per game.
If the offense can raise its level of play and the defense can cause turnovers, and turn them into points, the dark skies over the program will fade at least for next Saturday. A win gives the Gophers a 4-2 record and moves them within two victories of bowl eligibility.
If Minnesota earns a 2015 bowl win, that will be the program’s first postseason victory since 2004. That would lift spirits, too, as fans anticipate a much less demanding schedule in 2016 than the Gophers are facing in 2015. Michigan and Ohio State go off the schedule while Maryland and Rutgers come on. A better Minnesota record in 2016 is likely.
Gophers fans down in the dumps can remember success doesn’t always follow an ascending line on a chart. Consider nationally-ranked 5-0 Northwestern, riding high at the moment, but coming off consecutive 5-7 seasons. Iowa is also 5-0 after a 7-6 record last season. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, the longest tenured head coach in the Big Ten season, came into this season on the hot seat.
Yeah, short-term things aren’t so cheery with the Gophers because of on-field scoring problems this fall. But big picture—including the successes already achieved, the new facilities coming and Kill’s commitment to coaching here—things look much better. The sky isn’t falling, and brighter days are ahead.
Big Ten Power Rankings
1. Ohio State (5-0, 1-0): As the nation’s No. 1 ranked team, the Buckeyes are targeted for each team’s best shot.
2. Michigan State (5-0, 1-0): Spartans not playing like a top-five ranked team and after a warm-up game Saturday at Rutgers better get ready for October 17 at Michigan.
3. Michigan (4-1, 1-0): After an opening loss to nationally-ranked Utah, the Wolverines have outscored their opponents 122 to 14.
4. Northwestern (5-0, 1-0): Wildcats now in a key schedule stretch with games at Michigan on Saturday and then home versus Iowa.
5. Iowa (5-0, 1-0): The planets align for the Hawkeyes every few years—and this might be one of them.
6. Wisconsin: (3-2, 0-1): These may not be Barry Alvarez’s, Bret Bielema’s or Gary Andersen’s Badgers.
7. Penn State (4-1, 1-0): After the offensive line faltered in opening game loss to Temple, Nittany Lions looking better.
8. Illinois (4-1, 1-0): Illini made an upgrade in August when interim coach Bill Cubit took over for Tim Beckman.
9. Minnesota (3-2, 0-1): Gophers might have the most unproductive offense in the Big Ten after producing a total of 37 points in the last three games.
10. Nebraska (2-3, 0-1): Huskers can’t win the close games, losing three by a total of nine points, and that’s no endorsement of new coach Mike Riley and his staff.
11. Indiana (4-1, 0-1): After a softie nonconference schedule and close loss to OSU, much more will be learned about the Hoosiers after their game at Penn State on Saturday.
12. Purdue (1-4, 0-1): Boilers got a moral victory in 24-21 loss at Michigan State last week. You better believe they’re thinking real win against the Gophers.
13. Rutgers (2-2, 0-1): Wins over Norfolk State and FBS punching bag Kansas don’t impress.
14. Maryland (2-3, 0-1): Porous Terps defense gave up 121 points in losses to Bowling Green, West Virginia and Michigan. No relief in sight as Maryland plays at Ohio State on Saturday.