With two of the Big Ten Conference’s better teams ineligible for post-season games, and the conference having agreements in place with eight bowl game hosts, the Gophers have ample opportunity during the next several weeks to qualify for their first bowl trip since 2009. Opportunity and reality, however, are not the same.
Ohio State, 7-0 and ranked No. 7 in the Associated Press national poll, isn’t eligible for a bowl game and neither is Penn State, 4-2. That leaves 10 Big Ten teams fighting for eight bowl invitations, and Illinois and Indiana, both 2-5, don’t seem too likely to play in the post-season.
An FBS team will most likely need at least six wins to become bowl eligible, although a 5-7 team would qualify if it has been a division champion and played in a conference bowl game. The 4-2 Gophers have six games to find a couple more wins, with their best chances coming at home on October 27 against Purdue, 3-3, and at Illinois, 2-5, November 17. Minnesota doesn’t play Indiana but also might have a shot at beating offense-challenged Michigan State (4-3) in the Gophers’ last game of the season November 24 (at TCF Bank Stadium).
Minnesota’s chances of winning tomorrow in Madison appear minimal. The Gophers face a fast improving Badgers team, 5-2, and Minnesota hasn’t won at Wisconsin since 1994.
The Gophers’ other remaining games are at home against Michigan (November 3) and at Nebraska(November 17). Those opponents, along with Wisconsin, feature formidable running attacks, the kind of offenses the Gophers figure to have trouble controlling.
In Minnesota’s two conference games (losses to Iowa and Northwestern), the Gophers gave up a total of 390 yards rushing. Second half adjustments lessened the damage, but in the first half of each game the Gophers gave up too many yards.
But it’s not defense that so much gives pause to contemplating Minnesota’s bowl prospects. The Gophers have allowed an average of 19.8 points per game in six games. That’s a respectable sixth best among Big Ten teams and the numbers don’t tell the whole story.
Points scored against the Gophers have been inflated by playing an overtime period against UNLV, having an interception run back for a touchdown in the Iowa game; and several times the defense gave up points this season because opponents started drives inside the Minnesota 50 yard line.
We’re not trying to point fingers, but the Minnesota offense needs to improve a lot more than the defense if the Gophers are going to pack suitcases for a bowl trip in December. In their last three games against BCS opponents (Syracuse, Iowa and Northwestern) the Gophers have scored five touchdowns and a total of 43 points, averaging 14.3 points per game.
That won’t work in today’s college game where the rules favor offenses, and point totals even in the 40s and 50s can be required to win games. The Gophers are averaging 24.2 points per game for six games, ranking ninth in the Big Ten.
A suspect unit before the season, the offensive line hasn’t done much to enhance its reputation in six games. The line looked like a project back in August and still does, with performance hindered even more now by inexperience and injuries. There are issues, too, with the quarterback, running back and receiver positions.
Gophers fans prayed last summer that senior quarterback MarQueis Gray wouldn’t be injured during the season. Prayers were answered until the third game of the season when he injured his left knee and ankle in the first half against Western Michigan. Gray missed the Syracuse and Iowa games, and wasn’t fully recovered despite efforts to play against Northwestern when he re-injured his ankle.
The Gophers offense, without its best runner regardless of position, hasn’t been the same without the 6-4, 250-pound Gray. Replacement quarterback Max Shortell has been okay in the passing game but isn’t a running quarterback. Minnesota needs a healthy Gray to make a bowl game push.
The Gophers running backs and receivers lack explosiveness. Minnesota’s longest rushing play of the season is a 75 yard run by Gray. The longest by a running back is 26 yards. Eventually freshman wide receiver Andre McDonald may emerge as a long ball threat but for now the Gophers are much more likely to complete a lot of short passes. The longest reception so far is 53 yards by A. J. Barker.
Before the season started Sports Headliners looked at the Gophers’ offensive limitations and concluded that with a healthy Gray, Minnesota could win five to seven games. On October 19—halfway through a 12 game schedule and assuming Gray plays soon—I see no reason to change that view.
Worth Noting
Prayers are welcome for Lynx executive Conrad Smith who is battling cancer. Conrad is a former colleague with the North Stars, and his career has also included front office positions with the Twins and Timberwolves.
Here are the Sports Headliners weekly Big Ten football power rankings: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois.
No MIAC team has come within two touchdowns of St. Thomas and last Saturday the Tommies defeated preseason nationally ranked Bethel 37-0, but coach Glenn Caruso told Sports Headliners it “would be ridiculously arrogant or ignorant” to think his team has cinched another conference title.
The Tommies, 5-0 in MIAC games, have four league games remaining including tomorrow at Hamline. St. Thomas is the defending MIAC champion and top five ranked nationally among Division III teams. “We don’t focus on rankings. We focus on work,” Caruso said.
St. Thomas is the league’s only undefeated team but Augsburg, Bethel and Concordia all have only one loss. Caruso said the MIAC’s quality of teams is the best he’s seen during his five years at St. Thomas. “Almost every team is better,” he said.
The Tommies, who were 13-1 last season and advanced to the Division III semifinals, lost valuable players via graduation but Caruso said he “couldn’t get out of bed each morning” if he didn’t believe the 2012 team has the potential to be his best ever.
Larry Fitzgerald Sr. emailed news about sons Larry Jr. and Marcus and their involvement in the cause against breast cancer. The Fitzgeralds lost their mother, Carol, to the disease in 2003. Larry Jr., who comes back to his hometown of Minneapolis with the Cardinals to play the Vikings on Sunday, is an NFL spokesman for the league’s October campaign to raise awareness about breast cancer.
The All-Pro wide receiver donates $1,000 for every catch, $5,000 for each touchdown and in “the last two years he has donated over $50,000 to breast cancer research as a result of his play,” according to Larry Sr. Last Sunday Marcus ran in the Susan B. Anthony Race for a Cure marathon in Phoenix, with over $1 million raised. The Fitzgerald family has been active for years promoting the Carol Fitzgerald Memorial Fund in Minneapolis.
The other Twin Cities receiver on the Cardinals is rookie Michael Floyd from St. Paul who has seven receptions for 84 yards and one touchdown. Fitzgerald has 36 receptions for 430 yards and three touchdowns.
Adrian Peterson, who described Larry Fitzgerald Jr. as a great player but even better person, said yesterday at Winter Park that his left ankle is sore “but I don’t think it will become lingering that long.”
Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin leads the NFL in receptions with 49. He has caught a pass in every game he’s played during his Vikings’ career (53) including the playoffs.
Looks like Timberwolves coach Rick Adelman’s opening night lineup on November 2 at home against the Kings will be: forwards Derrick Williams and Andrei Kirilenko, center Nikola Pekovic, and guards Brandon Roy and Luke Ridnour.
Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor is talking with two out of state groups about selling the team. Those individuals would agree to keep the team in Minneapolis, although actually only the NBA Board of Governors can prevent a franchise transfer, Taylor told Sports Headliners.
Taylor had interest from people with probable intent to buy and move the franchise, but he refuses to meet with such potential purchasers.
The 70-year-old billionaire resumed his position as CEO at Taylor Corporation over a year ago and he’s been involved with six business acquisitions this year. His involvement with budgeting for his businesses will prevent him from accompanying the Lynx to Indiana for their WNBA Finals games tonight and Sunday evening.
The first USA Today Coaches Poll released on Wednesday includes five Big Ten basketball teams in the top 25 but didn’t include Minnesota. Big Ten schools ranked are No. 1 Indiana, No. 4 Ohio State, No. 5 Michigan, No. 14 Michigan State and No. 21 Wisconsin.
Edina High School senior basketball guard Graham Woodward has verbally committed to Penn State.
Gophers assistant baseball coach Rob Fornasiere has a detailed spread sheet with batting stats dating back to 1984. The Gophers team batting averages the last two seasons of .257 and .266 are the lowest during the period. Part of the reason, Fornasiere said, is the composition of metal bats has changed over the years and the ball doesn’t come off the bat with the velocity it once did. The change was made for player safety, particularly for pitchers who after delivering the ball are close to home plate and vulnerable to hard hit balls. Overall, for the last 29 years, the Gophers’ team batting average is .312.
Freshman Branden McGarrity set the Carleton men’s soccer school record for most goals in a season earlier this week. He scored two goals in a win over Northwestern College, increasing his career total to 17. He also holds the school record for assists with 38. Carleton 13-1-1 is ranked No. 14 nationally in the latest NSCAA poll.
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