Seems like there are about as many opinions as to the eventual winner of the NCAA basketball tournament as predictions regarding the recovery of the stock market. I checked earlier this week with former Gopher coach Jim Dutcher and he projected a different winner than the experts on CBS and ESPN who have five different choices.
Dutcher, who has been an outstanding commentator on Gopher telecasts for years and follows college basketball closely, picks Georgetown, the No. 2 seed in the Midwest, to emerge as the national champion next month when the tournament ends. CBS studio analysts Seth Davis and Clark Kellogg favor UCLA, No. 1 in the West. ESPN studio analysts Jay Bilas and Hubert Davis predict a Kansas national title (No. 1 Midwest). Their colleagues all have different picks: Dick Vitale chooses North Carolina (No. 1 East); Digger Phelps likes Memphis (No. 1 South); and Bob Knight makes Pittsburgh, a No. 4 seed in the South, his choice.
The diverse views are a reminder of the competitive balance in college basketball, making the exercise of forecasting a national champion part skill and part luck. “If I had to pick one team from what I’ve seen, I pick Georgetown,” Dutcher said.
He likes the Hoya’s 7-2 preseason all-American center Roy Hibbert and the team’s outstanding guard play. He respects coach John Thompson III and knows that Georgetown’s deep run in last year’s tournament will likely help this bunch that has a 27-5 record and plays its opening game tomorrow (Thursday).
The 64 team field will be down to 16 by Sunday night and while there are several teams getting at least a sniff, only the blindly loyal or delusional are picking a Big Ten team. Wisconsin was impressive, winning both the regular season and tournament titles. The Badgers operate on brains more than most teams and Dutcher thinks a talented group that has them down by 10 points puts Wisconsin in trouble. He believes the Badgers, a No. 3 seed in the Midwest, might at best make the final 16 teams. “I can’t see them going beyond that,” he said.
Michigan State is the Big Ten team best built for a successful tourney run, Dutcher said. The Spartans, who were pre-season conference favorites, have athletes, size and a “great point guard” in Drew Neitzel, according to Dutcher who coached the Gophers in two NCAA tournament games in 1982.
This will be a showcase tournament for individual talent with Neitzel and a full roster of other stars from coast to coast. Two of the best are in the same game when USC and guard O.J. Mayo play tomorrow night (Thursday) against Kansas State and forward Michael Beasley in a Midwest bracket game. Other show stoppers include UCLA guard Darren Collison and Bruin center Kevin Love (phenomenal outlet passer), Notre Dame forward Luke Harangody, Texas guard D.J. Augustin, Indiana guard Eric Gordon, Memphis guard Derrick Rose, and North Carolina center Tyler Hansbrough, a popular choice for player of the year.
Those players will impact the tournament and so, too, will the game’s never ending love affair with the three point shot. “I don’t think it’s ever been so obvious, the value of three point shooters,” Dutcher said. “Teams go out and make 12, 14 (three point shots) and turn around a game.”
The Gophers made 6 of 19 three pointers in their upset win over Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament last Friday. The Hoosiers were 1-14 in the 59-58 loss.