Tubby Smith’s team just might earn its first signature win of the season tonight in a quarterfinal Big Ten Conference Tournament game against No. 20 nationally ranked Indiana. While the Gophers improved from 3-13 in the Big Ten Conference and 9-22 overall last year to 8-10 and 19-12 this season, Minnesota has yet to defeat a top 25 team at home or on the road. After yesterday’s opening tournament win over Northwestern, a disappointing 55-52 performance, the Gophers are at least a decent bet to stun the Big Ten world by defeating the Hoosiers, 14-4 and 25-6 overall.
Minnesota is likely to play with more inspiration and sharpness against the Hoosiers. Why? Among the reasons is it’s not easy defeating another team three times in one season when there’s competitive balance between the two rosters. Just look at yesterday’s game where the Gophers, who had twice defeated Northwestern by 19 and 20 points, were so ragged in the first half they trailed 34-21. That’s a Northwestern team that was 1-17 during the regular season.
The Gophers forced Indiana into a night of turnovers (26) in Minneapolis during a January game and should have beaten the Hoosiers, instead losing 60-55. Earlier this month, the Gophers were playing Indiana within two points with about six minutes to play when the Hoosiers opened up a lead and won 69-55.
Indiana has the conference player of the year in rugged forward D.J. White who helped lead the Hoosiers in offensive rebounding but otherwise they aren’t a physical team, the type that bothers the soft Gophers (see two losses to mediocre Illinois). If the Gophers can minimize White’s inside scoring and rebounding, their chances of winning soar.
Go ahead and ponder, too, the Hoosiers psyche after the University asked head coach Kelvin Sampson to resign last month after alleged NCAA infractions. Sampson’s departure didn’t sit well with Hoosier players and their play has been less than impressive since. Indiana is 3-2 since Sampson left, suffering a 103-74 loss at Michigan State and losing in overtime to mediocre Penn State, 68-64.
For the Gophers to win, senior guard Lawrence McKenzie, a third team all-Big Ten pick, probably has to score about 20 points. When McKenzie has been a closer, the Gophers have been at their best (see the road victory at Iowa State and home wins against Michigan and Ohio State). He’s been seen making three pointers almost as far away as University Avenue and is the Gophers’ best hope to finish a game when a reliable point producer is needed.
The senior trio of McKenzie, forward Dan Coleman and center Spencer Tollackson has collectively been just okay this season. No doubt two of the three will need to have big games for the Gophers to win tomorrow and advance to the conference semi-finals on Saturday. Tollackson has struggled in March games this season with three points against Ohio State, zero at Indiana and nine at Illinois. Yesterday against Northwestern he injured his left ankle early in the game and didn’t score.
Indiana has an advantage playing in Indianapolis but the Gophers could quiet the crowd with a sharp performance, plus it will be a whole lot easier playing in Indy than it was in Bloomington. The Hoosiers might be favored by six points or so for the 8 p.m. game (telecast on the Big Ten Network).
With the Gophers likely headed toward the NIT, this will be a final opportunity for a signature win. Otherwise, as they say in baseball, it’s wait until next year.