In their most important series of the season so far, the Twins are advised to at least split their four game upcoming series against the Guardians at Target Field.
The Guardians are 5-0 this season against the Twins and lead Minnesota by 3.5 games in the race to win the American League Central Division. A Guardians sweep of the four-game series with the Twins that starts tomorrow afternoon (Friday) could make it quite unlikely Minnesota will win the division.
It’s extreme to think that on Sunday night Cleveland will be 9-0 on the season against Minnesota. Also extreme is the thought of a Twins sweep that would put the Twins in first place and boost Minnesota’s chances of being in the division lead through the last day of the season on September 29.
Even losing three of four will not be cheery news for Minnesota, while winning three would be a confidence booster. The way it looks right now the Twins are likely to and need to at least split the series.
The Guardians, 67-47, and the Twins, 63-50, will have one final series in September. Minnesota will play four games in Cleveland, September 16-19.
The Guardians have the best home record in the American League at 35-20 and 15 games over .500. In three home games in April against the Twins, the Guardians outscored Minnesota 19-8.
Twins president Dave St. Peter was asked earlier in the week about his view of the upcoming series: “It’s significant, obviously. We have an opportunity to make a dent in their lead. We clearly are playing at home, so these games are of the utmost importance.
“They’re really good (the Guardians). They’ve had our number to this point and so we’re obviously going to have our hands full.
“We know what their team is about. A lot of quality players, great defense, great base running. We know their bullpen is elite. So, we’re probably going to have to get to their starters and try to get to them early on with the hopes that we can kind of control games. And I think that will be one of the keys to the Guardians series.”
Only four teams in MLB have given up fewer runs than the Guardians with 452. Their saves total of 38 is second only to the National League Cardinals.
Bailey Ober is scheduled to start either tomorrow afternoon’s game or the night game at Target Field. He is one of three top of the staff pitchers for Minnesota that St. Peter was asked about.
“You know, I think our pitching has been great. We know there’s another gear. Pablo Lopez, we’ve already seen him pitch in the biggest moments (postseason 2023). We expect him to be great down the stretch. Joe Ryan has had a really, really nice year. Another step forward. And Bailey Ober over the last few months has been one of the better pitchers in baseball.
“So, I think we’re really confident about those three guys and believe they give us a great chance to win every chance they take the ball. So that’s going to be necessary if we’re going to hunt down the Guardians.”
Ryan had to exit yesterday’s game against the Cubs in the third inning because of triceps tightness in his right arm. Preliminary status is concern, with hope the injury will not sideline the seven-game winner for long.
The other two starting pitching spots in the rotation have been in flux over the course of the season. Most recently the four and five spots have gone to rookies Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa.
St. Peter said who fills those spots the balance of the season is likely to come from a mix of Richardson, Festa, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland. Paddack is on the IL list with a right forearm strain, while Varland has been pitching effectively for the Triple-A Saints.
A couple of those guys may figure into the bullpen plans, too. St. Peter predicts that, and he likes the relief pitching on his club which has been effective and could improve with even better performance and depth in the last two months of the season.
The Twins like reliever Justin Topa who they acquired from the Mariners in the offseason only to see him sidelined with a left knee injury. Topa is getting back into form with the Saints and St. Peter is “very excited” about his return to the Twins.
“We haven’t seen him pitch since spring training so that’s going to be huge for us and we’re still very confident Brock Stewart (right shoulder strain) will find his way back here as well.
“And we mentioned Paddack and Varland, both of those guys could also end up in our bullpen, just as they were last year in the postseason. So, we think there’s a lot of depth to our bullpen right now. We like that part of our team a lot.”
The Twins are trying to make the postseason for a second consecutive season. Fangraphs gives Minnesota a 33.4 percent chance to win the division and 51.1 percent likelihood to qualify for the playoffs as a wild card entry.
The Twins positional players can field, and score runs. Shortstop Carlos Correa and center fielder Byron Buxton are among the elite defensively at their positions in MLB. There are other fielding standouts, too, including the combo of Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda at third base, and Max Kepler’s capable work in right field.
The club ranks eight in runs scored in MLB with 552, fueled by a lineup of productive hitters including Lewis who has hit 14 home runs in 125 at bats. Correa is hitting over .300 and so, too, is Miranda who is bouncing back from a miserable 2023 when he had a shoulder injury.
Outfielder Matt Wallner, who St. Peter said might hit the ball harder than anyone on the roster, has been a key contributor to the offense since being recalled from the Saints in early July. He is hitting .311 in his last 15 games.
The bummer for the Twins is injuries have sidelined Lewis and Correa for extended periods. While Lewis is playing now, Correa hasn’t been in a game since July 12. Buxton hasn’t played in the last three games after colliding into the fence while making a catch. And there are the injuries already mentioned that pitchers are dealing with.
“We like our club a lot,” St. Peter said. “We think it’s a pretty good team. So, we gotta try to get healthy and stay healthy.”
Whoever is available for the Twins this weekend is likely to feel the energy from large crowds at Target Field. “…It’s certainly something we’re counting on during this upcoming homestand,” St. Peter said, while adding the club still has plenty of tickets to sell.
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