Gophers fans never thought about being jealous of programs like Northwestern, Stanford and Vanderbilt…but now they can. Whoopee!
Those have long been major college football programs but not schools expected to be ranked among the top 25 in the nation this year. While the Gophers have been wallowing in mediocrity or worse for decades, the last five, 10 and 15 years have seen the winning emergence of nerdy programs like those mentioned above along with Boise State, Kansas State, Northern Illinois and others.
In 2013, is Goldy ready to ditch the nerd label? Probably not but then let’s not get ahead of our story.
The Gophers have won a total of six Big Ten Conference games during the last three seasons while playing in a league that is far from the best in college football. Minnesota hasn’t had a winning season in the conference since 2003 and only three overall winning records dating back to 2004.
What’s going to happen during 2013 including the start of the nonconference season next week? Well, three different scenarios are likely but none involve a winning season in the Big Ten where Minnesota faces eight conference rivals.
In a word, this program—now in its third year under head coach Jerry Kill—remains fragile. The Gophers still don’t have enough outstanding players. Translation: Minnesota needs more talented personnel that can decide the outcome of games, and depth is a concern even where there are playmakers.
The coaching and recruiting is in place to eventually make the Gophers winners and New Year’s Day bowl travelers. But in 2013 Minnesota could end the season with any of these records: 8-4 overall, 4-4 in the Big Ten. Or try this: 7-5 overall, 3-5 in the Big Ten. And perhaps: 5-7 overall, 1-7 or 2-8 in the Big Ten.
To be 8-4 in all games and play at .500 in the Big Ten, the Gophers will need to not only sweep four nonconference softies, but pull off an upset or two in league games. Wins over Iowa, Nebraska (shocker), Indiana and Penn State might happen, with three of those games at home.
More likely is that the Gophers go 7-5, with three conference wins (last time was 2009). And possible, too, is Minnesota finishes 5-7 or even 4-8 overall, with just one or two Big Ten wins, and perhaps is unable to sweep its non-conference games.
Critical to having the best chance for improved records is opening the conference season with a win over Iowa at TCF Bank Stadium. And Minnesota’s early November game at Indiana involves two programs with dismal pasts but these teams surely see their 2013 matchup as vital to successes this fall. If the Gophers can’t beat Iowa and Indiana it will probably be a dark season for Kill’s team.
To hit the bullseye for the program’s best record since the 10-3 and 5-3 records in 2003, everything needs to go right for the Gophers. This starts on offense where sophomore quarterback Philip Nelson has to accomplish two things. First, he has to play a lot better than he did in seven games last season as a true freshman, and also he needs to avoid being sidelined with injury or illness. There’s no experience behind Nelson and if the Gophers have to play without him in any Big Ten game, or even in precarious moments during the nonconference, the outcome could be this: Potential Disaster.
There’s a lot of talk about the Gophers being better on offense this summer but there’s nothing wrong with taking a wait and see approach. Against better teams in 2012 the normal output offensively was no better than a couple of touchdowns per game.
Improvement has to be anticipated everywhere on offense if the Gophers are to have a winning season. The biggest need is for the line to emerge as a unit that is at least average by Big Ten standards. That would give Nelson and what seems like an improved group of runners and receivers time to make plays.
Despite having to rebuild the linebacker unit, the strength of the Gophers looks like the defense. A star search of the entire roster puts the cursor on three experienced defensive players, senior tackle Ra’Shede Hageman, senior safety Brock Vereen and junior cornerback Derrick Wells. As with Nelson, it’s imperative to season success that all three remain healthy and make plays including forcing turnovers that turn into points for a team figuring to struggle on the scoreboard against quality opposition.
What the Gophers will get out of special teams is a mystery but for a team with a thin margin for success it better be pretty good. At other places Kill has coached, his teams have been superb in special teams big plays including turnovers converted into points. This might be the year to see similar production at Minnesota, although it’s uncertain who will play key roles among kickers, punters and returners.
If things don’t go so good for the Gophers—key injuries, young talent doesn’t emerge fast enough, defense fails to lead the way—it could be a very disappointing season for passionate fans. The best advice, though, is to stay realistic and tamp down full season expectations even if the Gophers start fast with five straight wins and pull off an upset over Nebraska before October ends.
In the past the Gophers have had plenty of fast starts, and even potential program changing wins. History has documented that as autumn weather turns sour, so too does the record. And when the Gophers have upset an Ohio State or Michigan, nothing really changed long term.
But as with life in general college football can change, and has at places like Northwestern, Stanford and Vanderbilt. For years those programs made fans cry while rivals laughed at their teams. Now they inspire the have-nots of college football including the Gophers.
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