Predictions about the Vikings’ final 2022 season record run to extremes. Sports Illustrated, for example, has Minnesota at 7-10 while national talk show host Colin Cowherd is giddy about the Purple shocking the NFL with a 13-4 record.
Reality is speculating on a final record before the first regular season game is even played is challenging. Of course, it’s also fun.
The Vikings didn’t use their starters in three winless preseason games, the norm now for NFL teams. The Purple forecasting assignment is also more difficult because of the team’s new coaching staff headed by Kevin O’Connell. He is a rookie head coach and unknown leader, although the Vikings have a staff that includes veteran assistants.
The team was 8-9 last season, missing the playoffs for a second consecutive year. Sports Illustrated almost nailed Minnesota’s final record in its football preview issue in 2021 (predicting 9-8) and made the correct call about missing the playoffs.
S.I. was on the money last year in forecasting a second-place finish in the NFC North but in 2022 believes the Vikings will finish third behind the 11-6 Packers and (gasp) the 9-8 Lions. S.I. sees a possible scenario where the Minnesota offense is “middling” and the defense falters in its comeback bid.
Cowherd likes O’Connell’s resume as the former offensive coordinator of the Super Bowl champion Rams. He projects O’Connell will be a big help to veteran QB Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense. Cowherd’s gushing about the Vikings includes the prediction they will upset the hated Packers in the season opening game for both teams September 11.
Before Cowherd tells his audience the Vikings will win the Super Bowl, I asked a former NFL front office executive to jump in and offer his thoughts. What’s a best-case scenario for the Purple?
“I think if they keep (Danielle) Hunter and (Za’Darius) Smith healthy, and Cousins has a pretty good year, I think they’re a 10-win team and make the playoffs,” the source said while asking that his name not be used.
The two outside linebackers (may also play defensive end) have big upsides as pass rushers but also histories of being sidelined with injuries. If healthy, Hunter and Smith can take a lot of pressure off the uncertain secondary that includes two inexperienced and vulnerable defenders, safety Camryn Bynum and corner Cam Dantzler.
Hunter and Smith will need rest during games, with subs Patrick Jones and D.J. Wonnum available off the bench. “If they lose those guys (Hunter and Smith), or even one of those guys, it’s going to make just a huge difference,” the source said.
The NFL authority also said Cousins will be a key to a best-case scenario for the season. The veteran must play better in “crunch time” than in the past for the Vikings to make or even exceed expectations.
The potential positives for 2022 improvement include the schedule. The Vikings play nine of their 17 games at home and have only 7 true road games. They play the Saints in London on October 2 in a neutral site game that figures to be an easier assignment than trying to win in New Orleans. “I think that’s a big advantage schedule wise,” the source said about where the 17 games will be played.
Worst-case scenario for the season? Injuries wreak havoc, the authority said, citing names like Hunter, Smith, linebacker Eric Kendricks, running back Dalvin Cook and wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen as difference makers the Vikings can’t afford to lose in large numbers. (Jefferson, BTW, is Sports Illustrated’s choice to be NFL Offensive Player of the Year.)
Troubles, too, could include stumbling in the transition to new offensive and defensive schemes. If the Vikings falter on the learning curve that could contribute to losing a lot of close games again. Minnesota lost eight one-score games in 2021.
Regarding a disappointing 2022, the source summarized it this way: “So I think the worst-case scenario is the injury bug hits them, and they have growing pains with the new schemes on offense and defense, and they lose close games like they did last year and that knocks them out of the playoffs.”
With that scenario, his prediction is the Vikings finish 7-10.
Golden Gophers Notes
Wyatt Gilmore and Riley Sunram are two high school players to follow as the Gophers pursue their 2024 football recruiting class. Both have been offered scholarships and recruiting authority Ryan Burns from GopherIllustrated offers praise.
Gilmore, from Rogers, Minnesota, projects as a defensive tackle with Minnesota. “…I think he is going to be a really good pass rusher,” Burns said.
Sunram, from Kindred, North Dakota near Fargo, projects as a defensive end. “Riley Sunram I think is going to be a pretty special player,” Burns said. “I think he could be one of the best players to come out of the Dakotas in the last handful of years.”
The Gophers’ recruiting class for 2023 is holding at 18 verbal commitments, per 247Sports. Burns believes it could be November before there are additions to the class, with the possibility Minnesota will add players at cornerback, linebacker and receiver.
Credit past decisions in the University of Minnesota athletic department allowing the Gophers to pay less than market rate guarantees for home games against their three nonconference opponents in 2022. The $1,250,000 total is less than some Power Five programs pay out for one nonconference game.
Not only did the Gophers shutout New Mexico State 38-0 in their opener last Thursday night, but they also kept the Aggies from making long gains most of the game. Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi said last season Minnesota allowed the fewest explosive plays in the nation.
The Gophers played two of their backup quarterbacks in the fourth quarter to finish out the game, Cole Kramer and Athan Kaliakmanis. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca said during training camp it wasn’t clear who would replace Tanner Morgan if he were injured.
Head coach P.J. Fleck praised both his top backups near the end of camp. He said Kramer, a redshirt junior, had a “phenomenal camp.” Regarding redshirt freshman Kaliakmanis the coach said, “I am really proud of the progress he’s made, and he’s going to be a really, really talented player.”
Former Gophers in their debuts for other programs: RB Bucky Irving started and ran for 13 yards on five attempts for Oregon Saturday in its 49-3 loss to Georgia. Also Saturday, QB Zack Annexstad started for Illinois State and threw an interception returned for 100 yards while playing most of the game in a 38-0 loss to Wisconsin. On Friday night RB Ky Thomas started for Kansas, running seven times for 19 yards in a 56-10 win over Tennessee Tech.
Minnesota athletic director Mark Coyle said his department has about $21.5 million to pay back on a loan caused by drastically reduced revenues during the pandemic. He also estimated the debt still owed on the Athletes Village in the $38 to $40 million range.
“Athletes Village has been an absolute game changer for our program,” Coyle said. “We call it the wow factor when a recruit comes into your building and they have a chance to walk through this facility. It’s good when they pull out their cell phones and they start taking pictures.”
Coyle plans to attend Lindsay Whalen’s induction Friday into the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame. The legendary former Gophers and Lynx guard will join over 300 inductees in the basketball shrine in Springfield, Mass. Ex-Gopher and NBA star Lou Hudson is also part of the 2022 and will be inducted posthumously.
Coyle said Gopher athletes now have a 96 percent graduate rate, the highest ever at Minnesota. He also estimated that last school year over 130 of his athletes benefitted from more than 260 Name, Image and Likeness deals.
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