Jim Dutcher picks the Gophers to finish third in the Big Ten Conference behind Michigan and Indiana. But the former Gophers head coach wouldn’t be surprised to see Minnesota win the league championship.
Dutcher, who coached the Gophers to the 1982 Big Ten title, is a retired investment adviser but he remains passionate about college basketball and is a close observer of Minnesota and the other 11 schools in the conference. What’s the key to whether the Gophers can win the title this year?
“I think it’s mental,” Dutcher told Sports Headliners. “I just get the sense that the goal is kind of get back in the NCAA Tournament. That’s not your goal. Your goal should be to win the Big Ten championship. If they develop that mentality that ‘We’re the best team in the league, now let’s go out and prove it,’ they actually can win the thing.”
Gophers coach Tubby Smith told Sports Headliners before the season that his team, now 12-1 and ranked No. 11 in the country by Associated Press, has three potential first round NBA draft choices on the roster—point guard Andre Hollins and forwards Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams. And Dutcher also likes Minnesota’s talent and wouldn’t trade the Gophers’ roster for any other in the Big Ten.
“The standard kind of thinking is to win the conference you gotta have two (NBA) first round draft choices,” Dutcher said. “To win the national championship you need three first round draft choices. You go back through the years and it proves to be true year after year; coaches are important but that’s more important to have those guys.”
When Dutcher analyzes the Gophers he sees a talented, experienced and deep team playing with confidence. “Rodney is as good as any small forward in the league. Mbakwe is probably the best rebounder in the Big Ten. Both Hollins (guards Austin and Andre) are playing good. Andre, of course, can shoot the ball. Austin is steady. (Joe) Coleman has fit in really good at a small forward.”
Williams and Mbakwe are seniors, and all five starters were regulars last season. Off the bench come three players who have experience as starters—senior guard Julian Welch, junior guard Maverick Ahanmisi and sophomore center Elliott Eliason.
All that experience gives the Gophers an edge, Dutcher said. “They can withstand injury and foul trouble better than any team in the league.”
The Gophers stumbled to a 10th place finish in the Big Ten last season. After losing six of their final seven regular season games, and splitting two in the Big Ten Tournament, the Gophers rallied to win four straight in the National Invitation Tournament before losing the championship game to Stanford.
Dutcher emphasizes the importance of the fast finish to last season. “Really gave those guys some confidence.”
The Gophers rank No. 7 among conference teams in three point field goal percentage, .322. They are No. 5 in defensive three point field goal percentage, allowing .306 percent. The stats tie to a concern about Minnesota. “If there’s a (team) weakness, they gotta learn to play at the three point line, both offensively and defensively,” Dutcher said.
What about the rest of the Big Ten? Michigan, 12-0, is No. 2 in the A.P. poll and the conference’s only undefeated team. The Wolverines might have the Big Ten’s best player in point guard Trey Burke. Guard-forward Tim Hardaway Jr. is outstanding, too, and power forward Jordan Morgan is a third returning starter from last year’s team.
The Wolverines have added size and talent since last season, becoming one of the nation’s most impressive teams. “Their strength is that they have a great freshman class but that may also be their weakness,” Dutcher said. “They’re pretty young actually.”
Indiana started the season No. 1 in the country but an upset loss to Butler changed that. The Hoosiers, 11-1, are ranked No. 5 by A.P. and are led by preseason All-American center Cody Zeller. He’s part of a talented frontline that includes forwards Victor Oladipo and Christian Watford.
“If there is a key to this team, it’s Watford,” Dutcher said. “When he’s good, they’re good, but he’s not always good.”
Dutcher said there is another Indiana concern, too. “It’s a veteran team. Basically the starting team from a year ago. But they haven’t added much. …I think depth is a problem with Indiana.”
Dutcher predicts Michigan State will finish fourth in the conference standings, just behind the Gophers. He sees the Spartans (who play the Gophers next Monday in Williams Arena in the Big Ten opener for both schools) as a team that plays with maximum effort including a passion for rebounding. The Spartans have physical front line players in Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne who are the Big Ten’s second and leading rebounders at 7.8 and 7.5 per game.
Guard Keith Appling, who averages 14.9 points per game, is the team’s leading scorer. But Dutcher said there’s not enough guard help on the roster and the Spartans have periods of time “where they don’t score a point.” MSU, 11-2, is No. 19 in the A.P. poll.
Dutcher’s predicted order of finish for the remaining league teams after Michigan State is Ohio State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern and Penn State.