The last three regular season games—starting Saturday in Lincoln—will define the Gophers’ football season. This stretch could also be a “final exam” for Tracy Claeys as head coach.
University of Minnesota president Eric Kaler and interim athletic director Beth Goetz set up this potential drama for Claeys last November when they named him head coach. The three-year contract given the Gophers’ former defensive coordinator included a reported buyout of $500,000 after this season—a bargain-basement sum in big time college football.
After popular head coach Jerry Kill resigned in October of last year, Kaler and Goetz decided not to open up a national search for Kill’s successor. Instead, they opted for something of a trial balloon approach by changing Claeys’ title from interim to head coach.
The announcement of Claeys’ promotion came on November 11. Three days later the Gophers lost to No. 8 ranked Iowa. As interim head coach, Claeys had lost games to No. 15 Michigan and No. 1 Ohio State.
The 2015 Gophers had a difficult schedule and run of injuries. Claeys did get his first win November 21 against Illinois, and then lost to Wisconsin in the regular season final game. The Gophers had a victory over Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl and made their final record 6-7.
This season Minnesota is 7-2 overall and 4-2 in Big Ten games. The schedule so far has been the easiest in memory. The Gophers have conference wins against Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue. Those teams are a combined 5-19 in league games. Colorado State, Indiana State, and Oregon State—the three teams Minnesota defeated in nonconference games—are a combined 6-12 in their league games.
Minnesota’s two losses—to Penn State in overtime and Iowa by seven points—are missed opportunities. Penn State is now a top 20 team nationally, while Iowa is mediocre. Wins over either would have bettered the public perception of Claeys and his record, which includes no wins over nationally ranked teams, or rivalry teams like Iowa and Wisconsin.
New opportunities, though, are coming this month against No. 21 ranked Nebraska, improving Northwestern and No. 7 Wisconsin. Make that opportunities with an exclamation mark!
Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin are tied for first place in the Big Ten’s West Division with 4-2 records. Northwestern is 3-3 but played impressively the last two weeks in league losses to No. 6 ranked Ohio State and Wisconsin. Iowa, 3-3, is also in the West Division logjam that eventually will sort itself out and send the winner to the Big Ten championship game against the king of the East in Indianapolis in December.
Claeys told Sports Headliners last summer he wanted the Gophers positioned in November to make a run for Indy. A West Division title this fall, or even two wins in the last three games, would boost Claeys’ popularity with skeptical fans. Funny how championships and wins over hated border rivals can impact things.
What are the Gophers’ chances in their remaining regular season games? Minnesota is likely to play competitively against Nebraska and Northwestern, but Wisconsin is a big reach. The Badgers have a defense that compares favorably with any in the nation and the game is in Madison where the Gophers haven’t won since 1994.
As both interim and head coach, Claeys has a 9-6 record. Three of the six losses have been by seven points or less. Down the stretch he and the Gophers have to flip close losses like last year’s 30-25 Iowa game and the 29-26 Michigan score.
Claeys has won tight games against lesser opponents, including three this year by seven points or fewer. If the Gophers are to win big boy games in November—even by narrow margins—then they must play with more consistency. The offense has the conference’s second leading rusher in Rodney Smith but the line—playing without injured starters—has faltered at times, just like senior quarterback Mitch Leidner who has thrown untimely interceptions. The defense—the foundation of the program’s revival dating back to the first season of Kill and Claeys in 2011—has often been impressive. NCAA statistics earlier this week had the Gophers ranked 23rd in total defense and No. 3 in turnover margin, but the unit has been susceptible to big plays, partly because of suspended defensive backs. The Gophers have also had penalty problems on both offense and defense including a pattern of targeting calls by the referees.
To the credit of Claeys and his staff, adjustments have been made during games that helped Minnesota win. Last week’s halftime changes defensively limited Purdue to only three points in a 44-31 win. Being able to make the right moves during games is one of several things Claeys has done that deserve listing in the positive category.
Last offseason Claeys showed he would run the program his way by dismissing offensive coordinator and line coach Matt Limegrover. He kept the rest of Kill’s staff together—a group known for its longevity and skills. Claeys also signed a recruiting class in February that includes several freshmen who have displayed exceptional promise. The coach has also worked his way through the off field problem with the already mentioned defensive backs. With good fortune and preparedness, he has managed to keep his team relatively healthy even if a few key parts like tight end Brandon Lingen have missed much of the season. He and his staff have also shown skill in player development including breakthrough seasons for wide receiver Drew Wolitarksky and kicker Emmit Carpenter.
But despite winning seven games and being bowl eligible for a fourth consecutive season, Claeys and the Gophers have stirred minimal interest and passion in this competitive sports marketplace. Attendance is down at home games with the Gophers headed toward their lowest average since moving into TCF Bank Stadium in 2009. Claeys talks about recruiting “going well” but the Gophers’ 2017 class ranks near the bottom of the Big Ten, according to authorities like 247sports.com. Recruits include those with minimal or no offers from prominent football schools.
Claeys is a humble, straight talking bachelor from small town Clay Center, Kansas who is completing his first contract year and wants to stick around Dinkytown. He hopes new athletic director Mark Coyle will extend his deal, and Claeys mentioned on his Tuesday KFAN Radio show this week that having only two years on a coach’s contract can be used against the Gophers in recruiting.
Claeys probably won’t have to work under such circumstances. Coyle will either extend Claeys, or go in a different direction before December. The coach can finish the regular season no worse than 7-5 overall, and 4-5 in conference games. Those could be chancy numbers when it comes to Claeys’ future.
The good news is he and the team will have a lot to say about their fate the next three Saturdays.