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Don’t Buy Into Twins Exhibition Record

Posted on March 31, 2017March 31, 2017 by David Shama

 

A notes column, with emphasis on the Twins who open their 2017 regular season at home on Monday against the Royals.

The Twins lost 103 games last year but have a 2017 winning record of 16-13 in spring training as the club prepares to head north. Does a team’s exhibition record mean anything?

“Zip, zero.”

Those are the words of former Twins catcher Tim Laudner who now works as an analyst on Fox Sports North. Laudner, who will work Twins pregame and postgame programs, told Sports Headliners spring training wins and losses are misleading because MLB teams split their rosters for same day games, schedule more home games than away and often use marginal big leaguers instead of regulars.

Before the Twins compiled a regular season record of 59 wins and 102 losses last year, the club was 19-11-2 in exhibition games. Two years ago Minnesota’s regular season record was 83-79 after being 13-16-3 in spring training.

Sports Illustrated’s March 27-April 3 issue included an extensive preview of all 30 MLB teams, and the publication predicts the Twins’ record will be 69-93. The forecast is a fourth place finish in the American League Central behind the Indians, Tigers and Royals, but ahead of the White Sox.

An anonymous scout quoted in the magazine is critical of the team’s starting pitching and warns that if injured closer Glen Perkins isn’t available, it’s a big problem for the Twins. “Well, they’re in big trouble anyway,” the scout said.

Max Kepler (photo courtesy of Minnesota Twins).

Looks like the Twins will have four new faces in their opening day lineup and batting order compared with a year ago—and one player, Miguel Sano, at a different position. It’s expected Jason Castro will be the catcher, with Jorge Polanco at shortstop, Max Kepler in right field and a yet to be determined player filling the Designated Hitter role when the Twins open the regular season. Sano is expected to play third base instead of right field.

The lineup for the opener last year was: Ervin Santana, pitcher; Kurt Suzuki, catcher; Joe Mauer, first base; Brian Dozier, second base; Eduardo Escobar, shortstop; Trevor Plouffe, third base; Eddie Rosario, left field; Byron Buxton, center fielder; Sano in right; and ByungHo Park at DH.

Many Twins players need to have better performances than last year for the club to make a major step forward, and near the top of any needs list is Mauer. He turns 34 next month and is coming off his lowest batting average in 13 years with the Twins. After hitting .261 in 2016 and .265 two years ago, the career .300 hitter is no longer assured of being No. 3 in batting order this season.

“There might be days against some left-handers that we might not see Joe in the lineup at all,” Laudner said. “Joe is getting a little long in the tooth. I am not going to say that Joe is a platoon player. Joe in the past has shown that he has done a really nice job of hitting left-handers. There’s going to be some tough decisions for (manager) Paul Molitor to make as to why he’s going to fit. Sometimes it might come down to the analytics, (and) sometimes it might come down to the gut instincts of…Molitor as to where he is going to bat in the order, or if he is going to be in the lineup at all.”

Laudner said Mauer still has “batting skills” and is capable of a much higher average this season than in the recent past. Whether he stages a comeback, Laundner said, is predicated on staying healthy. The last few years Mauer’s health chart has sometimes been as interesting as his hitting stats.

The Twins surprised yesterday by giving Park a minor league reassignment and opening up the DH role to what looks like a platoon plan with perhaps Robbie Grossman, Kennys Vargas and others. In spring training this year Park came to camp as a non-roster player but led the club in home runs with six and RBI with 13.  The Twins decision makers reportedly want to have a roster of 13 pitchers, not 12, and that doomed Park for now, although he could be recalled later this spring.

Park, who will be 31 in May, had a difficult adjustment last year coming from his home in South Korea and trying to break into the big leagues with the Twins. Faced with a new culture, injuries and big league fast balls, Park hit just .191—although he did have nine home runs in his first 29 games.

Laudner predicted last year it would be a difficult adjustment. “I’ve played in Japan and that’s different than playing in the United States,” Laudner said referring to his owner international experience. …

Gary Trent Jr., the former Apple Valley star who played his 2016-2017 senior season for a school in northern California, scored seven points on 3 of 11 shooting Wednesday night in the McDonald’s All-American Game in Chicago. Trent, who will be a freshman at Duke in the fall, played 21 minutes for the West team that defeated the East, 109-107.

The website Casualhoya.com has been speculating about candidates for the Georgetown head basketball coaching vacancy. Minnesota’s Richard Pitino was included in a poll where 81 percent of voters said they didn’t want him as the Hoyas coach, while 19 percent did. …

ESPN will be televising 21 spring college football games. No, the Gophers game on April 15 at TCF Bank Stadium isn’t on the list. …

CollegeAD.com reported Monday the Gophers athletic department will be receiving more than $1 million as part of the NCAA’s one-time $200 million distribution to Division I schools in mid-April. Distributions are being made based on the number of athletic scholarships in place during the 2013-2014 school year. Schools with the largest athletic programs reportedly receive the largest amounts. The Gophers have a 23-teams program for men and women. …

The Wild’s Eric Staal played in his 1,000th NHL game on March 19 and will be honored in a pregame ceremony next Tuesday before Minnesota’s game against the Hurricanes at Xcel Energy Center.

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Fleck, Gophers on New Recruiting Track

Posted on March 29, 2017March 29, 2017 by David Shama

 

It’s early in the 2018 recruiting process but coach P.J. Fleck has Gophers’ football recruiting headed in a new direction. High school players from the class of 2018 can’t sign National Letters of Intent with Minnesota or other schools until next February, but they can make verbal commitments. An early look at Minnesota’s commitments list offers a contrast with what fans saw during the Jerry Kill–Tracy Claeys era from 2011-2016.

Fleck, who left Western Michigan in early January to become head coach of the Gophers, has verbal commitments from seven high school players so far—a total that exceeds what many Power Five conference programs have. A year ago on this date the Gophers didn’t have a single commitment, an indication of the aggressive recruiting by Fleck and his assistants.

In past years Minnesota pursued and often signed players who were two and three star players. Frequently the Gophers’ competition for recruits in past years came from the “have-nots” of college football—schools like Ball State, Colorado State or Louisiana Tech.

P.J. Fleck

Contrast that with players Fleck has commitments from so far. Collectively they have impressed various football recruiting authorities, and Minnesota’s 2018 class has a No. 15 national composite ranking by 247Sports. If by Signing Day next February Fleck can hold anything near that No. 15 spot, it will be a big difference from Minnesota’s No. 56 composite ranking of its 2017 class.

“The expectation from his staff is to have a top 25 recruiting class in 2018 and that’s something that hasn’t happened here in a long time,” said Ryan Burns, the recruiting authority from GopherIllustrated.com.

Fleck and his assistants are chasing and in some instances gaining commitments from players who have offers from prominent football schools like Michigan State and Oklahoma. Among those who have verbally committed is Chicago defensive tackle Elijah Teague who earlier this year said he wanted to be a Gopher.

“He (Fleck) has arguably the best defensive tackle in Illinois coming here,” Burns said. “He had quite the offer list from Oklahoma, South Carolina—anywhere and everywhere he wanted to go—and it wasn’t even March yet.”

Burns said a recruiting expert who covers Ohio preps believes Gophers commit Brennan Armstrong is the best class of 2018 quarterback in the Buckeye state. The Gophers made Armstrong a recruiting priority and got to him early, according to Burns. “They got him to campus and they were able to seal the deal,” he added.

Jaylen Mayfield, a prize offensive tackle from Grand Rapids, Michigan, initially made a verbal commitment to Minnesota, but now has backed off after recently being pursued by the Michigan Wolverines. “That’s going to be an interesting battle for P.J.,” Burns said before Mayfield de-committed. “A Michigan kid, a Grand Rapids kid, (who) gets an Ann Arbor offer. Someone I don’t know that he (Fleck) is going to be able to hang on to. But he’s a very athletic kid that they need on the offensive line.”

The early recruiting success by Fleck and his assistants didn’t sneak up on Burns. “I am not surprised at all,” Burns said. “I knew that when P.J. took over at Minnesota that there was going to be a bump in the recruiting rankings. It’s what his M.O. had been at Western Michigan.

“He had the top rated recruiting class, according to Scout.com, all four years he was in the MAC (Mid-American Conference), and it showed. His first year he went 1-11. His final year he ends up going 13-1, so it’s a correlation between if you’re higher in the recruiting rankings. …”

The 36-year-old Fleck and his extroverted personality received a lot of attention at Western Michigan. National media, including Sports Illustrated, wrote about his energy and passion as he rebuilt the Broncos. Western Michigan was 13-0 last season before losing in the Cotton Bowl to Wisconsin, 24-16.

At Minnesota, Fleck and his staff have many more resources than at their former home in Kalamazoo, Michigan. The “sales kit” includes the Big Ten brand, a unique college town in Minneapolis, varied academic offerings at the University of Minnesota, post-graduate job opportunities in the metro area including with Fortune 500 companies, new playing and training facilities, and the chance to sign on with a program that Fleck claims is going places.

Ryan Burns

“As long as P.J. Fleck is going to be here, people are going to be interested because he is so unique in the college football scene,” Burns said. “He’s so young. He’s got a lot of things to sell with his energy, including playing time with the number of positions they’re going to have to replace here at Minnesota in the near future. …”

Fleck inherits a roster that both now and next season has depth issues. The depth problem is partially caused by missed recruiting opportunities in the past. But it is further impacted by players leaving under Fleck whose style can cause attrition.

Fleck’s intense ways and warp-speed culture, including frenzied practices, aren’t for everyone. He said the other day that in his second year at Western Michigan “close to 21 players” left his program and during spring football he had only about 40 players participating in drills. Yet, Fleck insisted that eventually he will build two-deep quality at various positions with the Gophers.

“There’s always going to be people that leave the program,” Fleck said. “There’s (also) always going to be people that love it and stay. It’s just so different (his football environment) and so new. …We gotta get our numbers up (at Minnesota) over the next few years.”

Fleck had about 150 high school juniors watching practice last Saturday. Burns said there is so much interest in the Gophers that high school players from faraway states like Georgia are paying their own expenses to check out the Minnesota football program. Burns added it’s all part of an intense recruiting plan where Fleck will target having all his 2018 recruits verbally committed prior to the opening game on August 31 against Buffalo.

Burns estimated about 75 percent of high school players who originally make a verbal commitment to a school actually keep their pledge and sign National Letters of Intent. He thinks Fleck’s percentage at Minnesota could turn out to be 90 percent. “He does a very good job of keeping his verbals,” Burns said. “Once you buy into P.J. Fleck, he is going to make sure he does everything in his power to keep you there.”

Comments Welcome

Gibson, Hughes to Hold Twins Fate

Posted on March 27, 2017March 27, 2017 by David Shama

 

Twins authority Roy Smalley believes his former team can win a dozen more games in 2017 than last season, and also be a fun club to watch, but he said it won’t happen without better pitching from starters Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes.

Smalley played shortstop for the Twins for 10 seasons and now does analysis of the team on TV. He singled out veteran pitchers Gibson and Hughes when asked about the upcoming season and the likelihood for improvement. Minnesota was 59-103 in 2016. Gibson’s record last season was 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA. Injuries forced Hughes to miss much of the year and his record was 1-7 with a 5.95 ERA.

The Twins five-man rotation will be led by Ervin Santana, 7-11 with a 3.38 ERA a year ago. Santana is considered a No. 2 or No. 3 level starter but on the pitching-poor Twins, he is the stopper. Other starting pitchers for the rotation will be Gibson, Hughes and Hector Santiago, acquired in a trade with the Angels last season for Ricky Nolasco. He had a 3-6 record and 5.58 ERA record with Minnesota. The fifth starter is to be determined.

“Every team plays the way they pitch,” Smalley said. “The starting pitching is the most important thing on any team, so having not made any changes other than Hughes coming back (he didn’t pitch after June 9), the starting staff is virtually the same.

“You’re looking for Ervin Santana to be Santana. You’re looking for Phil Hughes to be better. You’re looking for Kyle Gibson to be better. If Hughes isn’t better and Gibson isn’t better…then it almost doesn’t matter what the other keys (for a good season) are.”

Gibson, who is 29 years old, was 11-11 with a 3.84 ERA in 2015. Hughes, 30, was 11-9 with a 3.40 ERA that year. Gibson’s best victories total with the Twins was 13-12 with a 4.47 ERA in 2014. The best Hughes has done was the same year, when he was 16-10 and had a 3.52 ERA.

“Gibson has got to be no longer a .500 pitcher,” Smalley said. “He can’t be 12 and 12 any more. His M.O. has been he will win 10 or 12 games, and in those games that he wins, his ERA is like 1.80 or something. And in the 10 or 12 games he loses, his ERA is 6. It’s been a Jekyll or Hyde kind of deal. He’s either really good or he’s out in the third inning.”

Smalley believes this season Gibson can “flip” several games that have been losses in prior years. “(A record of) 15-10 is not only doable but necessary for Kyle Gibson. I think he has to win 15 games, and Hughes has got to be a 14, 15 game winner for them (the Twins) to take a really big step.”

Smalley’s expectation is that the three leading winners in the rotation must win “between 40 and 45 games” for the Twins to make that improvement of winning a dozen or more games this season than last. Good relief pitching, defense and hitting will be important, but Smalley emphasized the starting pitching in his interview with Sports Headliners.

Miguel Sano (photo courtesy of Minnesota Twins).

If the starting pitching is at least average, then it makes the club’s potential offensive power much more relevant, Smalley believes. Second baseman Brian Dozier looks like a solid bet to produce a lot of home runs after hitting 42 last season, and this could be the year much-hyped prospects Miguel Sano (third base) and Byron Buxton (center field) emerge as major run producers.

“Then you’re going to have a really fun team to watch,” Smalley said. “…Because those guys can supply enough offense along with other guys that are around them. Guys like (right fielder Max) Kepler and (shortstop Jorge) Polanco who I think are terrific hitters, or are going to be. I mean you got a chance to have some really fun offensive production.”

Worth Noting

Minnesota Wild season ticket holders receive priority on purchasing playoff tickets, so the club is encouraging other fans to join the GameDay Tickets text notification list at wild.com/gamedaytix. Fans on the list receive a SMS text message on playoff game days if tickets are available. The Wild’s first round playoff details will be announced after the NHL regular season ends April 9.

Defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr. recently rejoined the Gophers and impressed coach P.J. Fleck on Saturday after a two-hour practice. “He’s been leading our secondary,” Fleck said. “He hasn’t been out here that long obviously—but, man, did he take over our defense today. Very proud of him. I love his how, I love his effort. He shows incredible leadership out there. You can tell that young man loves to play the game. …”

Fleck has several candidates for the starting quarterback position. He is looking for a starter who is going to “command the team on offense,” and make decisive and exceptional decisions.

The Minnesota Football Coaches Association is expecting record attendance this year for its annual clinic March 30-April 1, but is still accepting reservations. This year’s speakers at the DoubleTree Hotel in St. Louis Park will include Fleck, Duke’s David Cutcliffe and North Dakota State’s Chris Klieman.

There will also be a Youth Coaches Clinic March 30 and April 1 at the DoubleTree Hotel. Sessions will include ideas for building a youth football program, practice planning, and much more.

For more information about the clinics and other details regarding the MFCA, click on the advertisement on this page.

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