Who are the five schools that may expand the conference to 16 teams? In addition to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Missouri might leave the Big 12 for the Big Ten where the TV revenues will be richer. The Midwest seems like a better fit geographically for Nebraska and Missouri than the Big 12 with its Texas roots.
The other two expansion teams may well be Rutgers and either Syracuse or Pittsburgh. Rutgers has academic swagger and a much improved football product, and most importantly commands attention in nearby New York City with the area’s 19 to 20 million people.
Syracuse, particularly its men’s basketball team, is a college favorite in the state including New York City. Rutgers and the Orange could make the Big Ten powerful in the New York-New Jersey TV market that is so important to advertisers. Pittsburgh is an alternative, although the state of Pennsylvania already is pretty much Big Ten football territory because of Penn State.
Rutgers, Syracuse and Pitt, like Notre Dame, are all members of the Big East Conference. It seems likely that the Big 12 and Big East must now consider major strategic planning in reaction to the Big Ten.
As for Notre Dame and Minnesota, the two schools could be aligned in the same division after expansion. A West Division might look like this: Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame and Wisconsin. The East Division could be: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State, Rutgers and Syracuse/Pitt.
The expansion will set up a much anticipated conference championship game in football between the winners of the West and East Divisions. The event will potentially put the conference even or ahead in popularity of any other similar games including the SEC title game.
There might be another benefit in football, too, and that is expansion of league games. Instead of eight conference games per school each year the number might become nine or 10. League games result in increased attendance, more TV viewership. Translation: increased interest, more money.
Expanding to 16 teams perhaps could stir talk of a Big Ten hockey league. With Notre Dame, the league hockey schools would also include Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan Sate, Ohio State and Wisconsin. A six team league may seem small, but the National Hockey League once thrived with the same number of teams.
Whatever changes come out of Big Ten expansion, this much is probable: the league and other parts of American college athletics will look dramatically different. And don’t count out a return of the Fighting Irish to the Gophers’ schedule.