There is a lot of “noise” out there about predicting the “Big Dance” winner. Why listen to this platform?
Well, I have never been wrong in an office pool. (Full disclosure: Never entered one, either.)
Credibility? I’ve been following college hoops for so long I remember when only the Big Ten champion was allowed to be in the 25-team field.
I recall when the Final Four wasn’t on TV. I listened to static-filled broadcasts from out-of-town radio stations and reception was so bad I often didn’t know the score.
Impressed yet? (Should I mention coaching a ninth-grade basketball team to the Minneapolis city title?)
Now that you’re on board, here we go:
Want a dark horse to emerge at the Final Four? While we learned in Minnesota that not all Pitinos are alike, Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Red Storm just might grind their way to the finals in Indianapolis.
To do that the Storm will have to upset Duke in the East Region. The risk-taking part of my brain says a Final Four of St. John’s, Arizona, Michigan and Florida. The Cinderella Pitinos, with their 73-year-old coach and full court maniacal defensive pressure, could bring the “Big Apple” a national championship before the Knicks can win their first NBA title since 1973.
The cautious side of my cranium says it will be Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida in the finals. The boys from the desert, those talented Wildcats from Tucson, win it all!
For support on that assertion, I turn to my friend Jim Dutcher. “They just have been the most consistent team all year,” the former Gopher coach said. “They’ve got great guard play and they’ve got good depth. Very good defensive team. …When they play any of the big teams, they still manage to win.”
What about St. John’s, Dutch? “Yeah, the way they came through and just killed UConn (in the Big East Tournament title game last Saturday). UConn is a good team. They beat them by 20. And, of course, Pitino is a good coach. He’s proven it at every level. …They’ve had a great year and they’re a dangerous team for sure.”
The authoritative Kenpom.com website has Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida with the four top net ratings among men’s college teams. The first three are above the gold standard of 35.00, with Florida coming in at 33.79. A team at 35 is expected to outscore an average team by 35 points per 100 possessions.
CBS college basketball guru Clark Kellogg has Purdue in his Final Four. Dutcher doesn’t see the Boilermakers going that far because their “outside shooting” isn’t good enough. He thinks Michigan has the best chance of the Big Ten’s nine tourney teams to make a long run. “It wouldn’t be a great surprise to see Michigan go all the way,” he said.
Wisconsin, a No. 5 seed in the West, has two of the better guards in the nation in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. Boyd played previously for Dutcher’s son, Brian Dutcher, at San Diego State. The Aztecs made the Final Four in 2023 for the first time ever, but with the impact of NIL money in major college basketball now you can make the odds long of mid-majors causing a big splash in the tournament.
The divide between high majors and mid-majors is that considerable. There are reserves on high major teams earning six-figures, so be wary about picking “have nots” to win much in the tournament. “Money talks,” Jim said.
The Gophers, 15-17 overall and 8-12 in Big Ten regular season games, have accepted an invitation to the College Basketball Crown tournament in Las Vegas starting April 1. Other teams are Colorado, Creighton, Baylor, Oklahoma, Rutgers, Stanford, and West Virginia. The Gophers, No. 77 in Kenpom.com net rating, open against Baylor, No. 49, on April 1, with a 9:30 p.m. Minneapolis tip off time scheduled. The game will be televised by FS1.
In coach Niko Medved’s first season, playing with limited talent and virtually no depth because starters were sidelined with injuries, he far exceeded expectations. The Gophers upset three top 25 teams and in the regular season standings finished ahead of seven other schools in the 18-team Big Ten.
“He did an unbelievable job,” Dutcher said of Medved. “To go into a team (place) like Michigan and take them right down to the final wire. And see some of the other games, they were just unbelievable and had some great upsets.
“But then they lost to some teams like a Rutgers (and) that isn’t that good. So, they just don’t have the depth. But he did an outstanding job. It was good to see upwards of 8,000 people at Williams Arena again.”
What about Minnesota’s fate in the upcoming tournament?
“You can’t win a tournament with a six-player roster,” Dutcher said. “Sometimes five player roster. They just don’t have the depth. They’re capable, as we saw, of beating some really good teams, but you’ve gotta have more depth than they have to make a tournament run.”