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Category: Golden Gophers

Whew! 9 Win U Prediction Survives

Posted on August 30, 2019August 30, 2019 by David Shama

 

Enjoy a Friday notes column dispatched to readers after last night’s comeback win by the football Golden Gophers against South Dakota State.

Darrell Thompson, the Gophers’ all-time leading rusher, believes this Minnesota team is the deepest he has seen while doing 23 years of color commentary on radio broadcasts. He told Sports Headliners earlier in the week the Gophers will finish 9-3 overall, 6-3 in the Big Ten.

Thompson’s prediction was tested last night against SDSU, a top-five FCS team that was supposed to lose the game by a couple of touchdowns. Instead, the Jackrabbits led 21-20 until the FBS Gophers scored a late touchdown and two-point conversion to win 28-21 in a home season opening game that could have done major damage to prospects for the program’s first nine victory season since 2016.

P.J. Fleck

Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck emphasizes the subject of turnovers when talking about why teams win or lose games. His team had no fumbles and a harmless interception last night but turnovers by SDSU redshirt freshman quarterback J’Bore Gibbs led to 14 of Minnesota’s points including a 43-yard interception third quarter return for a touchdown by Chris Williamson.

In an entertaining back and forth game, the Gophers made enough plays to win but gave their fans plenty to fret about. The offensive and defensive lines were way to inconsistent in their performances. Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan was frequently under pressure trying to throw as the Jackrabbits either caused confusion or used speed to go around Gopher linemen. The defense, including the Minnesota line, was exploited inside and out against the Jackrabbits who had more first downs, rushing yards and passing yards than the Gophers.

The Gophers were twice out of position on SDSU kickoff returns including what should have been a Jackrabbit touchdown late in the second quarter. An illegal block in the back nullified an SDSU kickoff return touchdown and a 14-13 lead at halftime.

Minnesota now is 2-0 this century against South Dakota State, having won two games by a total of 10 points. Nothing to crow about, but better than the alternative of being 1-1 after last night.

Thompson was interviewed recently on “Behind the Game,” the Twin Cities cable TV program co-hosted by Patrick Klinger and Bill Robertson. The show can also be viewed on YouTube.

By late Saturday evening all 14 Big Ten Conference teams will have played a season opening nonconference game. Every coach will welcome a win but three have such poor career records they badly need a ‘W.’ The college coaching records of Rutgers’ Chris Ash, Maryland’s Mike Locksley and Illinois’ Lovie Smith are 7-29, 3-31 and 9-27 respectively.

In Big Ten games only the three coaches are 3-24, 1-5 and 4-23.

Counting conference and nonconference games, every Big Ten team will play at least six teams that participated in a bowl game last season. Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin have eight such matchups, followed by Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers with seven each.

Among the Power Five Conferences, the Big 12 is the only one without its own stand-alone TV network. Those networks are major revenue and exposure generators, and the day might be coming when there is only a Power Four consisting of the Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12 and SEC. If the Big 12 dissolved, would Oklahoma and Texas join the Big Ten’s West Division? If so, Purdue could move to the East Division so the conference can be balanced with two eight-team divisions.

Minnesota’s next game is at Fresno State a week from Saturday evening, and fans without access to the CBS Sports Network won’t be able to watch on TV.

Barbara Butts Williams is being honored by Twin Cities Business Magazine in October for her board service to Allina Health. She was the wife of the late John Williams, the community minded Minneapolis dentist who was a 1967 first team All-Big Ten offensive tackle on the Gophers Big Ten championship team.

Minneapolis native Larry Fitzgerald will soon start his 16th NFL season, all with the Arizona Cardinals. Paul Allen, the Vikings radio voice, ranks Fitzgerald the NFL’s third best all-time blocker among wide receivers. Allen said during the simulcast of the August 24 Minnesota-Arizona preseason game only Hines Ward and Anquan Bolden rank ahead of Fitzgerald.

With nine teams, including Minnesota United, vying for a playoff spot in the MLS Western Conference, club CEO Chris Wright is pleased the Loons have veteran 31-year-old goalie Vito Mannone playing for them. Wright told Sports Headliners Mannone “is not nervous” in big games and has faced a lot of pressure in his career including in the English Premier League. “Big goalkeepers win big games,” Wright said.

Alpine skiing great and Minnesota native Lindsey Vonn, whose foundation works to empower young girls to grow as athletes and individuals, speaks at the State Theatre September 23.

Jeff Passolt, the St. Louis Park native who won Emmys for sports and news TV journalism, speaks to the CORES lunch group Thursday, September 12 at the Bloomington Event Center, 1114 American Blvd. Public reservations are accepted until Monday, September 9 by contacting Jim Dotseth, dotsethj@comcast.net. CORES is an acronym for coaches, officials, reporters, educators and sports fans.

Comments Welcome

Gophers, Bison in Box Office Matchup

Posted on August 25, 2019August 25, 2019 by David Shama

 

The Gophers won’t be the only Division I football team hosting a game in Minneapolis this week. The North Dakota State Bison will become the first Division I school ever to play at Target Field on Saturday, two days following the University of Minnesota home opener at TCF Bank Stadium.

Minnesota and the Bison, who have played against each other nine times over the years, won’t be matched up to determine a winner on the scoreboard but it will be interesting to see who comes out on top in attendance. Look for the Gophers, who are the only Division I team based in the state of Minnesota, to announce a larger crowd at their Thursday night game against South Dakota State than Target Field will announce for the NDSU-Butler game. But the Bison may well have more fans actually in attendance than the Gophers do—with a higher percentage of ticket buyers showing up at Target Field than at the Bank.

Expect the U to announce a crowd of more than 40,000 for the game at its 50,805 seat stadium. The Gophers have been in the 22,000 public season tickets range in recent seasons and while the total for 2019 hasn’t been announced it’s likely to be similar. Minnesota marketers, needing to boost interest in the South Dakota State opener, promoted a 24-hour flash sale to the public several days ago resulting in 7,127 $10 tickets being sold. Also, an athletic department official texted on Friday that about 9,000 tickets will be distributed to students for the game. A year ago the announced crowd for the home opener was 41,291. That was the third consecutive year the announced attendance for the opener trended down.

It’s common for announced attendance in college football to be higher than the number of tickets scanned at the game or customers going through the turnstiles. A Wall Street Journal article last August said actual number of attendees at games was typically about 30 percent less than announced. In recent seasons at Minnesota not only are there sections and sections of seats empty, but many of the best seats go unoccupied even though they have been sold.

Per a Star Tribune article last November, the turnstile counts of 15,434 and 15,160 for late season Minnesota home games against Purdue and Northwestern contrasted sharply with the announced attendances of 35,774 and 32,134. What will the numbers look like Thursday night? Well, if the Gophers distribute 45,000 tickets and 30 percent are no-shows, that means about 31,500 customers in the stadium.

The Minnesota Twins are promoting the Target Field game, and club president Dave St. Peter is confident there will be minimal unused tickets next Saturday. He already has experience with the first college football game played in the downtown baseball park, and that, too, was a hot ticket. In 2017 St. Thomas and Saint John’s renewed their rivalry before a Division III record crowd of 37,355.

“That was not a manufactured number,” St. Peter told Sports Headliners. “That was the real number. I think that number would have been higher, if it had not been so hot that day (late September).”

The football capacity at Target Field is about 35,000 but the 2017 game exceeded that figure because obstructed view and standing room only tickets were sold. St. Peter is predicting a turnstile count of 33,000 to 35,000 paid admissions for Saturday’s game. As of late last week the ticket total was about 32,000, with St. Peter saying “any of the good seats are going for significant dollars on the secondary market.”

Bison Nation travels in large numbers to watch its teams that have won seven of the last eight Division I FCS national championships, a remarkable achievement. St. Peter estimates 99 percent of the tickets sold are to NDSU fans, with perhaps 80 percent of customers living outside of the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.

That means economic impact on the local hospitality industry including for bars and restaurants near the stadium. “I expect downtown Minneapolis is going to be humming both Friday and Saturday evenings with North Dakota State fans,” St. Peter said. “There is no doubt about it.”

The Twins promoted the St. Thomas-Saint John’s game on a Saturday that the Gophers had a bye on their schedule. This week there is an opportunity to stage the Bison against Butler game because the Gophers are playing on a Thursday, instead of their usual Saturday. The Twins don’t want to give the impression they’re out of step with the University, who almost always has the big time college football spotlight in the state to themselves.

“We’re sensitive to that relationship,” St. Peter said. “We have a great partnership with the University of Minnesota. (Athletic director) Mark Coyle and I have a great relationship. Mark knows where we’re at it, and he’s supportive of our efforts to play football here.”

There’s no doubting this is a showcase game for the Bison program and its fans. Butler is a mediocre team but Saturday’s game means an opportunity to play in the big city at an acclaimed ballpark in front of a packed house. NDSU gave up a home date on its schedule to play this game but per St. Peter will receive a financial guarantee and potential additional income based on attendance.

The Bison, ranked the No. 1 FCS team in the nation going into the season, have built much of their success on rosters populated by Minnesota natives. This year’s roster has 36 players from the state of Minnesota. The FBS Gophers, by contrast, have 41. Bison coaches have excelled at finding players in the state, including prospects that the U either ignored or offered preferred walk-on status, but not a scholarship.

The Bison have won two of three games against Minnesota this century, leaving the all-time record between the schools at 7-2 in the Gophers’ favor. In recent years NDSU has earned impressive road wins at Minnesota (twice), Iowa and Kansas State. Whether the Bison could week after week win games against Big Ten and Big 12 teams is an argument for another day, but a college football authority told Sports Headliners the passionate NDSU fan base thinks so. “They believe they can beat ‘Bama,” he said of the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide who has dominated the FBS landscape for years.

Target Field opened in 2010 and was designed to accommodate football and others sports beyond baseball. St. Peter said conversations with NDSU athletic director Matt Larsen about a Bison game at Target Field go back years, even before negotiations started for the St. Thomas-Saint John’s game. Because of their on field success against FBS teams, the Bison apparently feel locked out of those opportunities. The Target Field game provides an attractive alternative. “They were looking to play a game in the Twin Cities,” St. Peter said.

This likely isn’t the last college football game that will be played at Target Field, and there could even be a Bison return. “We’re very open minded,” St. Peter said. “We definitely want to do future football games. Preferably we play them in November outside of the baseball window but we’re open minded to future opportunities. We’ve already had dialogue with other schools, other opportunities about the future. As of right now, we don’t have anything that is on the docket.”

St. Peter is a University of North Dakota alum and the Fighting Hawks have a great fan following of their men’s college hockey team. A first-ever hockey game at Target Field fits in with the varied events strategy for Target Field and inviting North Dakota is a favored option. No college hockey program travels like the Fighting Hawks.

“It’s something that we would love to make happen,” St. Peter said. “We’d actually like to make Minnesota-North Dakota happen here. That’s really the game that we want and we’ve made it known. We’ve had a lot of dialogue over the course of the last several years. Still working on it, nothing definitive at this time.”

What’s definitive is this: North Dakotans will follow their favored teams anywhere including to Minneapolis.

Comments Welcome

Fleck’s Gophers West Title Contenders

Posted on August 22, 2019August 22, 2019 by David Shama

 

Want to pick the 2019 winner of the Big Ten’s West Division?

No problem. Write the names of all seven teams on small pieces of paper. Then tear up the one labeled Illinois and throw it into recycling. Now place the other six, including the Golden Gophers, into a helmet—and stir up the pieces with the fury of a gridiron warrior!

Whatever order of team names is drawn could be the final West Division standings in late November. Except for bottom-feeder Illinois, every college football authority is predicting the West will be a wild scramble—perhaps the most competitive race in the country to determine a champion.

Nebraska is a popular choice by many sources to win the division title. For example, the results of the often quoted Cleveland.com media poll that came out last month predicted this order of finish: Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois.

The high scoring Cornhuskers have a glamour coach in Scott Frost, future Heisman Trophy candidate in sophomore quarterback Adrian Martinez and maybe the Big Ten’s best football athlete in wide receiver and Eden Prairie native J.D. Spielman (he might have opted for lacrosse at Ohio State). The Huskers have a feared offense but the vote here is that the defense will still be too leaky under Frost, who in his second season is rebuilding the once national power.

Also a warning sign that Frost may not have his culture in place yet is news linking multiple players to marijuana use. Put the Huskers down for a 5-4 conference record, but no title.

So if the road to the West championship doesn’t go through Lincoln where does it lead? Follow the trail to both Evanston and Iowa City. Sports Headliners is predicting Northwestern and Iowa will tie for the West title with 6-3 league records. Joining the Cornhuskers with 5-4 records and in a second place logjam will be Minnesota and Purdue. How is that for a cozy race?

Wisconsin and Illinois? The Badgers and Illini finish at the bottom of the West standings with respective conference records of 3-6 and 1-8 (Illinois defeats lowly Rutgers from the Big Ten East).

Northwestern is the defending division champ and although the Wildcats have won 15 of their last 16 Big Ten games they don’t receive enough respect. That’s not an issue here, and I will argue coach Pat Fitzgerald is the league’s best coach. The Wildcats annually play some of the most physical football in the Big Ten and do it with intelligence. The schedule is formidable with crossover games against East Division brutes Ohio State and Michigan State but at least the Cats meet up with both in Evanston.

“They play their butts off. That’s their secret,” an anonymous coach said about Northwestern in the 2019 issue of Athlon college football magazine.

Iowa has a senior quarterback in returning starter Nate Stanley, and talented players on the offensive and defensive lines. Those are high value assets for a Hawkeyes team that closed last season impressively, including with a bowl win over the SEC’s Mississippi State. As usual the Hawks figure to be a plodding and conservative offensive bunch, but also one that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes.

Iowa will be difficult to score against and despite a schedule that includes crossover games with East Division powers Michigan and Penn State, the Hawks go 6-3 and find a way to win one more league game than last year when they were 5-4.

Look no further than the state of Iowa to find support for the Gophers who haven’t won a Big Ten championship since 1967. Chad Leistikow, writing in late July for Hawkcentral.com, predicted Minnesota will have a 6-3 conference record and finish in a second place tie with Nebraska (behind Iowa) in the West Division. He rightfully refers to Minnesota’s Big Ten schedule as the “friendliest” among division contenders, and he likes the team’s talented and deep skill players at running back and receiver.

P.J. Fleck

Zack Annexstad’s foot injury that has him out indefinitely makes the quarterback situation fragile with no experience behind Tanner Morgan but there is recognition in Big Ten territory that coach P.J. Fleck has more talent on both sides of the ball than seen in Dinkytown for awhile.

Purdue Nation is in a lovefest with third-year coach Jeff Brohm. He has revived a dreadful program with a highlight reel offense featuring one of college football’s most exciting players in wide receiver Rondale Moore. The Boilermakers can make opponents dizzy with their passing but concerns about the line put some gloom on the offensive unit. Defensively, the Boilers haven’t established a positive identity in Brohm’s first two seasons, giving up 40 points or more in four games last season including when Minnesota pounded Purdue 41-10 in Minneapolis.

The Gophers and Boilers open their league schedules in West Lafayette. Sorry, but the forecast here is Purdue takes revenge for 2018.

West Division glory frequently has gone through Madison but maybe things are changing. Wisconsin was not only a favorite to win the West a year ago, but appeared talented enough to make a run at earning an invitation to the College Football Playoff. Instead the Badgers disappointed with an 8-5 overall record, 5-4 in the Big Ten. Wisconsin lost an early season game at home when BYU pulled off a major upset. Things got worse when at season’s end the hated Gophers embarrassed the Badgers in Madison, 37-15.

Despite a big bowl win over Miami, did the long powerful UW program lose its swagger? If so, can the Badgers get it back? The recovery project may include turning to a true freshman quarterback in Graham Mertz and seeing progress from a suspect defense. Pivotal season coming for the Badgers who showcase Jonathan Taylor, the great junior running back.

When Illinois hired NFL veteran Lovie Smith as its head coach in 2016, I found it a curious choice. I am still scratching my head about that, and Illini loyalists can’t be blamed if they are pulling their hair out. In three seasons Smith and friends are 9-27 overall and 4-23 in Big Ten games (ouch). Based on past performance, the Illini don’t seem to do a lot effectively but they do have one of the conference’s better running back tandems in Reggie Corbin and Mike Epstein. Positives also are that the Illini seem to be upgrading the talent and there’s not much whispering about Smith’s job security because school authorities appear committed for the long-term.

The Big Ten schedule parade starts next week with nonconference games led first by Minnesota hosting South Dakota State on Thursday night.

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