It’s almost un-American not to fill out an NCAA Tournament bracket. So stand up for your country and get busy tonight or tomorrow morning. Become the basketball savant in the office pool, or with other friends afflicted with “March Madness.”
Nobody asked but here are suggestions for filling out your bracket:
Think about who your bracket rivals are and their biases. If, for example, they are focused on Big Ten teams, go in another direction. If teams appear relatively similar, select differently than you anticipate others will do. You can only win by having more success than they do, but don’t get crazy about upsets in making picks.
Look for teams that are elite at doing something—shooting, defense, forcing turnovers, rebounding etc. Dig a bit deep with research and see what teams do special things. It might be three-point shooting proficiency, or a defense that guards beyond the arc like nobody else in the country.
Does a team have a stud closer? Pardon the baseball analogy, but a Kirby Puckett type who says, “Jump on my back. I’m driving the bus tonight.” A Mr. Clutch who wants the basketball in the last minutes and delivers.
Doesn’t matter if a team checks a lot of boxes for success but is without its key players. March illness and injuries can crush your Cinderella team, dark horse or tourney lock to win the NCAA title. Do your homework.
Forget spending much time guessing about what teams can become Cinderella and go deep into the tournament. But identifying dark horses is a smart move because those teams are much more likely to advance beyond the first weekend.
A team seeded No. 7 or lower has made the Elite Eight in nine of the last 10 tournaments. Andy Wittry, writing on NCAA.com last week, pointed that out, and also reminded that in the 2021 tournament two dark horses from the Pac-12, No. 11 UCLA and No. 12 Oregon State, surprised by advancing to the Elite Eight. The Bruins even made the Final Four. (A mention of 2022 potential upstarts offered later in the column.)
Strength of schedule matters a lot to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee in seeding the teams. It’s a factor worth looking at for fans and their brackets, but not a “crystal ball” except for predicting Final Four teams. Finalists are almost always high seeds and champions come from the elite basketball conferences including the ACC, Big-12, Big East and SEC.
It also matters if a team has a coach with NCAA Tournament experience. Great coaches make a difference at tournament time with scouting, preparation, game plans and in-game adjustments. Those responsibilities come in a pressure cooker environment and success can be more likely if this isn’t a coach’s “first dance.”
Gonzaga, from the not so competitive West Coast Conference, will try to become an NCAA champion outlier. The Zags, with freshman All-American Chet Holmgren from Minnehaha Academy, have been No. 1 in the AP poll of late. They will have a lot of fans rooting for them—from Spokane to Minneapolis.
Superb coach in Mark Few and lots of talent, but I don’t believe in junior All-American Drew Timme as the Zags’ closer. Holmgren, despite his inexperience, might emerge as the key guy. Call me a “homer” but I am predicting the Zags to pick off their first national title ever.
Duke could win the grand prize in Coach K’s last dance but the Blue Devils will have to step up their game. They are an inexperienced bunch with immense talent and the skill-sets to stop varied offenses. Paolo Banchero is a big time scorer. Mike Krzyzewski is closing out his coaching career and the master teacher might have his team saving its best basketball for early April and the national championship game.
The Big Ten likes to thump its chest every year but no team from the conference has won the national championship since Michigan State in 2000. It won’t happen this year because of too many flaws in the league’s best teams.
The Big Ten club likely to make headlines? Maybe Ohio State. The Buckeyes have fallen out of favor (here’s a dark horse) but they have a special talent in E.J. Widdell, an emerging star in freshman Malaki Branham, solid role players and a top coach in Chris Holtmann. Other March Madness upstarts to consider include Alabama with its weird results of elite wins and ugly losses, ACC Tournament champion Virginia Tech (over Duke), and those three-point sharp shooters from South Dakota State.
Baylor won the NCAA title last year and the Bears remain successful, talented and coached by Scott Drew, one of the best in the business. But no team has repeated as NCAA champs since Florida in 2007.
UCLA could be a trendy pick to make the Final Four again but I don’t see it. The Bruins aren’t overly talented, just experienced and solid in multiple ways. They found tourney magic last year but doubtful they can find such a path in 2022.
A dark horse for the title? Consider the Arkansas Razorbacks and coach Eric Musselman—the ultimate competitor and motivator. If Ukraine had 100 Mussy’s they would send Putin’s thugs back to Moscow by mid-week. His Hogs are 25-8 and winners five times in their last eight games.
And finally there is this: the underdog Loyola Ramblers are back in the tournament with 102-year-old icon Sister Jean praying for them. Have faith in your bracket, now that you have expert advice.