In regard to wins and losses in 2026, the Golden Gophers football team isn’t generating much buzz from the media. A middle of the pack finish in the 18-team Big Ten and middling bowl game is a common prognostication.
Athlon Sports magazine projects an 11th place finish. Lindy’s Sports publications and Cleveland.com project 10th in the standings.
Those are authoritative sources and so too is RJ Young from Foxsports.com who detailed all 138 FBS football teams last week and ranked Minnesota, 8-5 last season, at No. 59 in the nation. Mississippi State, who the Gophers play at home in their second game of the year, was 5-8 in 2025 but is ranked No. 52. Wisconsin, who Minnesota meets in the season finale, is No. 49 after finishing 4-8 last season.
Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach, writing for ESPN.com recently, projected the college football playoff and bowl teams. Schlabach forecasts Minnesota playing Arizona State in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas. Bonagura didn’t include the Gophers among teams destined for postseason play.
Most authorities researched by this writer aren’t so pessimistic as Mr. Bonagura and project a bowl game for Minnesota. There are college football media that have the Gophers among the top 50 teams in the nation, and The Athletic’s Chris Vannini ranks Minnesota No. 39.
But it’s a ho-hum outlook across the board from media gurus. Why?
Well, the Gophers play in the Big Ten Conference that arguably is the best in college football. Minnesota figures to be an underdog in its games against Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State and Washington. Toss ups in the 12-game regular season schedule look like Mississippi State, Northwestern, UCLA and Wisconsin. The most certain wins appear to be FCS Eastern Illinois and Akron in nonconference games, and Purdue in the Big Ten. And remember the Gophers play five of their conference games on the road.
Then, too, there is history. Coach P.J. Fleck, entering his 10th season in Minneapolis, has a track record of winning about half his Big Ten games. The overall records for the last five seasons are: 9-4 twice, 8-5 twice and 6-7 once—or an average of 8 wins per year.
The sports books set Minnesota’s win total for 2026 at 6.5. Fleck said neither he nor his team pay attention to the sports books. …”Our kids are focused on being 1-0 every single day. Finding a way to get better. Today (Monday) was a great practice. This team’s been really fun to coach because whatever you put in front of them, they knock down. …”
When pressed for a Gopher season prediction last week by friends, this writer forecasted 7-6. Give me an asterisk on that. The view here is the Gophers could finish anywhere from 5-7 to 9-4 including a bowl win.
Injuries will be significant in determining the final record. If the Gophers are fortunate enough to have their starters (particularly a half dozen or so of the key players) stay out of the medical tent this team could roll to success. Then, too, key injuries to opponents could give the Gophers an edge against quality teams not foreseen right now.
Here’s something that doesn’t get valued enough and was sourced by ESPN. The Gophers retain about 68% of their overall returning production from the 2025 season, or the 7th-highest percentage in the FBS. Fleck brings back about 71% of his production on offense and 65% on defense.
A valued college football source told Sports Headliners this is Fleck’s most talented team, partially because of returning quarterback Drake Lindsey. He could take a big step in year two as the starter, ranking with the better passers in college football.
Darius Taylor, injury plagued in the past, is a big play threat running from scrimmage and catching a pass in space. The running back room looks intriguing with newcomers including Ryan Estrada who Fleck praised yesterday in front of reporters.
New receivers coach Isaac Fruechte is likely to get more production out of that group than in the past to help Lindsey. Targets of watch include Jalen Smith, who was the offensive MVP of the Rate Bowl last December, and Cincinnati transfer Noah Jennings who wears jersey No. 13 like 2019 All-American WR Rashod Bateman. Fleck has compared the two.
The Gophers probably have two future NFL players in left tackle Nathan Roy and left guard Greg Johnson. Veteran center Ashton Beers is a tough player and will be productive, too. Right guard and tackle are concerns but there’s probably more talent and depth than last year.
It will be a surprise if Anthony Smith, who led the Big Ten in sacks last season, isn’t an All-American. Fellow edge defenders Karter Menz, TJ Bush Jr. and Jaxon Howard figure to make things difficult for opposing quarterbacks when they try to pass.
Some combos of those players may at times play in the middle of the line. A big physical presence is needed in the middle to stop runners. Theorin Randle, Riley Sunram and Naquan Crowder are names to watch develop as regulars on the interior. Don’t be surprised if Forest Lake freshman Howie Johnson gets in the rotation.
More star power is at linebacker with Maverick Baranowski. Matt Kingsbury is the likely starter at the other linebacker spot, with Joey Gerlach and Emmanuel Karmo adding depth and talent to the LB roster.
Cornerback John Nestor is among the more highly regarded cornerbacks in the Big Ten. He makes timely plays and his six interceptions last season tied for best in the conference. The Gophers have another star in the secondary in strong safety Kerry Brown who probably contributed more at times last season than crowd favorite Koi Perich.
Aydan West, a hyped transfer from Michigan State, should give the Gophers a pair of exceptional cornerbacks. Mekhai Smith or Zack Harden show promise at the free safety position.
Special teams look pretty much like a blank slate. Other than returnee Tom Weston, a quality punter, the identity of kickoff and punt returnees, and field goals and extra points specialists is in limbo. The upside is new special team coach Daniel Da Prato has a glowing resume from other stops and could be the best of the Fleck era. Fleck said his new coach has “done a tremendous job.”
And then there is this for those who like to finish on a high note. Before the 2019 season sports books had Minnesota at 6.5 or 7 wins for the team that went 11-2 and finished No. 10 in the final Associated Press poll.