How much will the Vikings’ acquisition of tight end T.J. Hockenson improve the offense? “I would say it adds…probably 25 percent dimension to the offense,” analytics expert Daniel House told Sports Headliners.
Hockenson, 25, was traded by the Lions to the Vikings Tuesday and is expected to play in Sunday’s road game against the Commanders. A 2020 Pro Bowl selection, the former Hawkeye and Iowa native was the eighth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
This season Hockenson has started all seven games for the Lions, totaling 26 catches for 395 yards. That’s the most receiving yards in his career through the first seven games of a season, and he has three touchdowns. His 15.2 yards per catch is the most in the NFL among all qualifying tight ends in 2022. He is also considered a capable blocker, but it’s his pass catching ability, including on deep balls, that is most attractive.
House is a well-known sports journalist in Minnesota whose analytics and other football knowledge draws online readers following the Golden Gophers and Vikings. He’s been impressed with the new front office and coaching of the Vikings, including the Hockenson deal.
“I think it’s one of those moves that takes the Vikings offense to another dimension,” House said.. …”If you take away (WR Justin) Jefferson, you’re going to give Hockenson some good matchups. If you give coverage attention to Hockenson, that will free up some of the other playmakers too. Also, (RB Dalvin) Cook running the football. He’ll run into wider boxes, which is good as well.”
Head coach Kevin O’Connell has been impressive with schemes and play calls to keep the offense effective for the 6-1 Vikings, but the addition of Hockenson is expected to make that job easier. While it may have been difficult to put the deal together obtaining Hockenson, it’s a no-brainer to see why the move (that included exchange of draft choices for both teams) was put together. Starting tight end Irv Smith Jr. is injured and out indefinitely. Then, too, his pass catching has been underwhelming. Opposing defenses have been focused on stopping Jefferson, the team’s superstar receiver.
“I just like the way that the offense is built,” House said. “I feel like it’s very modern. Kevin continues to tweak it and now we’ll see sort of what it looks like with Hockenson because he’ll sort of fill that Tyler Higbee (Rams tight end in a similar offense) type of role.”
This is part of what House wrote on Twitter when the Vikings acquired the 6-5, 248-pound Hockenson who was a three-star recruit coming out high school: …”Still on rookie deal w/ fifth-year option next year, gets separation at the top of routes, great hands and creates mismatch possibilities.”
O’Connell said his defensive coaches, who had to prepare for Hockenson in the past, acknowledge what a talent the Vikings are acquiring. “They were more excited than anybody to get him on our roster and know what he can do for us,” O’Connell said.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins has targeted tight ends on 18.9 percent of his passes so look for that to change in coming weeks. Hockenson needs to assimilate the offense and learn to play with his new teammates so don’t expect him to be on the field a lot Sunday. But his acquisition has sent a message to the team and fans the Vikings are serious about winning.
Vikings Notes
In an email to Sports Headliners, a former NFL front office executive pointed out that without acquiring Hockenson, and with Smith injured, the Vikings likely would be starting reserve Johnny Mundt. He wrote Mundt “is ok on short routes and a good blocking tight end but not a down field threat.”
Jefferson has caught 63 passes of 20+ yards since entering the NFL in 2020—the most in the league by 12 catches during that span (Cooper Kupp and Mike Evans have 51 each).
Observers believe starting WR Adam Thielen, 32, has diminished speed from earlier in his career and is unlikely to be with the Vikings next year. Look for Minnesota to prioritize a wide receiver or two in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Cousins made a 17-yard touchdown run last Sunday against the Cardinals, although his speed has been clocked at a pedestrian 4.9 seconds in the 40-yard dash.
BTW, Cousins is a fan of fast food and made that known early in his Vikings days when he talked about patronizing Portillo’s.
O’Connell, with a win Sunday against the Commanders, can become the fifth NFL head coach since 2000 to win seven of his first eight career games, joining Jim Caldwell (2009), Jim Harbaugh (2011), Matt LaFleur (2019) and Mike Martz (2000).
Although it’s early November, Sunday’s game is only Minnesota’s third in an opponent’s home stadium. The Vikings have a loss at Philadelphia and a win at Miami, and a neutral site victory over the Saints in London.
The NFL season is about at the midway point and the final average score margin (9.52) as of last Tuesday was the lowest through the first eight weeks of a season since 1970. Fifty-five games had been decided by a touchdown (six points or fewer), the most such games through week eight in NFL history.
Brooks Bollinger, the former quarterback who played with multiple NFL teams including the Vikings, is the latest guest on “Behind the Game.” He talks with co-hosts Patrick Klinger and Bill Robertson about his playing and coaching career that included leading the high school football programs at Hill-Murray and Cretin-Derham Hall. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiFEhXuMwBc
The Commanders franchise is being shopped for sale. Forbes values the franchise at $5.6 billion but Front Office Sports newsletter speculates the final price could be $6 billon, making the transaction the largest ever in the world for a pro team. Chelsea FC sold for $5.3 billion earlier this year.