It’s become popular for internet media sites to issue “way too early” top 25 college football rankings in January. Read later in this space whether Minnesota is drawing national attention, but right now Sports Headliners offers much more detail about the Golden Gophers than a ranking.
Here then is a “crystal skull” script on how Minnesota will do in 2022. The schedule is not daunting. Talent and experience are in place. The coaching staff, led by P.J. Fleck, Joe Rossi and Kirk Ciarrocca, is impressive. The outlook is upbeat with the prediction that Minnesota can reach 10 wins with a bowl game victory. This is how the season could go:
The season opener with New Mexico State will draw more interest because of the two head coaches than the players on the field. The Aggies’ Jerry Kill isn’t a Fleck admirer. In a 2019 satellite radio interview Kill criticized Fleck’s ego and suggested the Minnesota coach is more about himself than the players. This fall Kill will be back on the sidelines as a head coach for the first time since he was Minnesota’s head man in 2015.
The game is a “damned if you do and a damned if you don’t” matchup for Fleck and the Gophers against a New Mexico State team that figures to be about a three touchdown underdog. Minnesota, coming off a 9-4 season, is seen nationally as a program on the rise. The Aggies were 2-10 last season and traditionally rank among the 10 worst major college teams. Embarrassments in 2021 included 59-3 and 56-16 losses to Alabama and Kentucky.
If the Gophers win big, observers will yawn. If the game is close, a Minnesota victory will have the critics talking about how Fleck was out coached. A New Mexico State win? Start negotiating with Kill about returning to Dinkytown.
The Gophers begin the season with three home nonconference games: the Aggies, Western Illinois and Colorado. That should result in a 3-0 start but this comes with a warning label.
Fleck’s teams are often sluggish early in the season. The coaches appear to take a conservative approach with the offensive playbook. In 2021 the implausible happened when the 31 points favored Gophers, playing at home, lost to Bowling Green. But in non-erasable ink let’s put the Gophers down for a 3-0 start to the 2022 season and knocking on the door of a top 25 national ranking.
The original schedule for this year had the Gophers opening the season with five consecutive home games including Big Ten matchups against Iowa and Purdue. But earlier this month the Big Ten football office modified the league schedules and the Gophers will now play Iowa at home November 19. The prior September 24 date with Iowa now has Minnesota at Michigan State.
It looks like Sparty goes into the season as a top 15 team nationally coming off last year’s impressive 11-2 finish. Home field will be the difference as the Gophers lose in East Lansing after the unbeaten non-conference start.
The next week the Purdue Boilermakers spoil Minnesota’s homecoming, with their first win over the Gophers since 2017. Dinkytown is in a panic!
Coach Ciarrocca, quarterback Tanner Morgan and the rest of the offense are imitating the struggles of 2021 instead of doing a 2019 encore. The defense is leaky after having to replace top play-makers like Boye Mafe and Jack Gibbens.
The media jackals are howling. Gopher loyalists are feeling sorry for themselves after a 0-2 Big Ten start. But during a bye week, coaches make adjustments and players vow to flip the script.
Look out because here come the Gophers who this year must play five conference road games, with four at home. Morgan brings back memories of 2019, with slant passes and long throws to wide receivers Chris Autman-Bell and emerging star Dylan Wright who in 2022 becomes a more disciplined route runner.
The running game remains dominant as it has been in Fleck’s previous five seasons at Minnesota. Mo Ibrahim, a 2020 All-American, could be among the Big Ten’s most productive tailbacks, but the Gophers will ease his workload with significant carries from Bucky Irving whose breakaway style complements Ibrahim’s power.
The offensive line with four new starters doesn’t hit its stride until mid-season but is anchored from the start by center John Michael Schmitz. He will be a top candidate for the Dave Rimington Trophy, last won by a Gopher in 2005 when Greg Eslinger was honored as the nation’s best center.
The defensive line, like its offensive counterpart, is likely to have early issues as it fills in with new players including at least three transfers from other programs. It will be interesting to see if leading play makers include highly hyped freshman defensive end Anthony Smith from Shippensburg, Pennsylvania.
The secondary, led by potential all Big-10 cornerback Justin Walley and veteran safeties Jordan Howden and Tyler Nubin, could be among the best in school history. Linebacker Mariano Sori-Marin, considered a coach on the field, is back to lead and inspire the defense.
Coach Rossi has earned the guru label from his players. His success dates back to his appointment as defensive coordinator in November of 2018 following an embarrassing 55-31 loss to Illinois. Since then the Gophers’ record is 26-11.
The defense will have help in dictating field position from punter Mark Crawford. The Aussie is skilled in dropping punts inside the 20 yard line of opponents.
Starting with an October 15 victory over Illinois, Crawford and his mates run off six consecutive league wins. Worthy of a state fair blue ribbon is the return of Floyd of Rosedale to Minneapolis. Before a raucous crowd at Huntington Bank Stadium, veteran kicker Matthew Trickett boots a last minute field goal to give Minnesota the bronze pig and its first win over the hated Iowa Hawkeyes since 2014.
The next week in Madison the Badgers stop the Minnesota win parade. Respect Badgers head coach Paul Chryst. Fear defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard who finds a way to control Ciarrocca and the Minnesota offense. Pray Leonhard doesn’t eventually become the big boss in Madison.
The Gophers finish the regular season at 9-3. For part of the year Minnesota is a top 25 team, maybe cracking the top 15 list in the polls. The Gophers could finish in that company, too, with an impressive bowl game victory.
That’s certainly higher than “the way to early” rankings in January from ESPN, CBS, Sporting News and Yahoo, who all leave Minnesota out of their top 25 teams. Stewart Mandel from The Athletic—and yours truly–believe the boys from Dinkytown deserve top 25 billing right now.