Scatter gunning about the Timberwolves-Thunder playoff series that starts tonight in Oklahoma City.
It will be intriguing to see how excessive the physical play will be in the best of seven games Western Conference Finals and how much aggression is allowed by the referees. There’s been plenty of the rough stuff in the NBA playoffs so far, and sometimes it’s been extreme.
“I don’t even know what a foul is any more in the NBA,” a former NBA scout told Sports Headliners Monday.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, he added this about the Wolves-Thunder series: “You know it’s going to be physical.”
Both teams have strong, athletic, aggressive players who can push the limits with the referees, but he believes the Wolves are the more physical bunch. He expects, for instance, Thunder MVP and high scoring guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) will get knocked on his butt by the Wolves when driving toward the basket.
If the refs “swallow their whistles” regarding SGA, that will be a new trend. He is averaging 8.7 free throw attempts and converting 85.4 percent in the playoffs.
The Wolves showed a physical style of defense, offense and rebounding in their two previous playoff series this spring. They overwhelmed both the Lakers and Warriors in five games.
Now the Wolves have a much more challenging opponent in the Thunder, the gambling favorite to win the NBA championship in June. The Wolves will try to pull off an upset against a team that had an NBA best 68-14 regular season record.
Wolves coach Chris Finch complained during the regular season about how much Thunder players foul. That style isn’t likely to change starting tonight. So, it’s difficult to predict how an “anything goes” officiated game will favor two teams who are both long on finesse but capable of mucking things up.
The former scout thinks the two teams are “evenly” matched. “I like the Wolves chances (to win the series),” he said.
While SGA may be announced any day now as the 2025 NBA MVP, he thinks Wolves superstar guard Anthony Edwards is the better player. “As he goes, so go the Wolves,” said the source who also was a former college coach.
SGA, 26, is averaging 29 points, 5.9 rebounds and 6.4 assists in the playoffs this spring. Edwards, 23, is at 26.5, 8 and 5.9, and is the superior defensive player.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Edwards guarding SGA at big moments in the series, although Minnesota defensive stopper Jaden McDaniels, 6-foot-9, is another superb defender the Thunder scoring machine will have to deal with. If the Wolves double and triple team SGA, they will gamble that his teammates won’t take advantage of open looks.
The Thunder have their own “defensive devils” including swingman Alex Caruso. At 6-foot-5 and playing like a pit bull, he could be a potential stopper against either of the Wolves’ leading scorers in Edwards and Julius Randle.
Minneapolis native Chet Holmgren, at 7-foot-1, gives the Thunder one of the best rim protectors in the league. He is averaging 2.2 blocks per game in the playoffs, and his wingspan alters plenty of shots. He is also an offensive challenge to opponents, able to shoot three pointers and score close to the basket.
Holmgren, a center-forward, is averaging a Thunder third best 15.1 points per game in the playoffs. The Wolves will also have to defend the OKC second leading scorer in guard-forward Jalen Williams averaging 19.6 points.
The Thunder are No. 1 among NBA playoff teams in both defensive rating and steals per game. The Wolves are second and fourth.
The Thunder top the Wolves in most team stats during the playoffs including points per game, rebounds and assists. Oklahoma City’s net rating of 13.5 is best in the post season.
Randle, averaging 23.9 in the playoffs and showing playmaking skills, will be pivotal to Minnesota’s success. He will have to contribute or even lead the Wolves in scoring to relieve some burden off Edwards.
That kind of help will be important, too, from McDaniels who has emerged in 2025 as a potential 20-point scorer with his ability to make three-point shots and drive to the basket. Naz Reid, often referred to as the NBA’s best sub, is expected to deliver instant offense with his trademark three-point shooting.
To fully click offensively, the Wolves will need around 30 minutes each game from 37-year-old veteran point guard Mike Conley. Minnesota is a better team when Conley is directing the offense with his patience and wisdom. The Wolves can’t afford his absence because they have no one else like him. The Thunder thrive on turning turnovers into points.
Center Rudy Gobert, at 7-1 and 258 pounds, leads the Wolves rim protection. He can also chair the “welcoming committee” when SGA attacks the rim. The balancing act will be for Gobert to avoid foul trouble. On offense, it would be nice if Gobert’s clumsy hands allow him to cleanly handle passes from teammates who often deliver the ball too low. Also, if he can average double figures in rebounds, that will be a big factor in the series, too.
Both the Thunder and Wolves have deep rotations. Superb contributions by a bench player or two could tip the series, or at least a game or two.
Hear that, Donte DiVincenzo? The Wolves 6-4 combo guard is making a miserable 33.3 percent of his field goal attempts in the playoffs.
Win the series and the Wolves go to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. It’s a matchup of two teams with talented, versatile players, explosive offenses, stingy defenses and deep rotations. Heck, even the two fan bases are similar with delirious partisans in both Oklahoma City and Minneapolis.
Prediction? I’ll take the Thunder in six. OKC is collectively just better than the Wolves. If you don’t like the prediction, send “flowers” to the former NBA scout who likes the Wolves chances.